Understanding the Changing Dynamics of Brexit: An Analysis by More in Common
Introduction
As the dust begins to settle after the 2019 election and the Brexit referendum, a think tank called More in Common has conducted insightful research on the evolving landscape of British politics. This research sheds light on the transforming perceptions and identities tied to Brexit, indicating a departure from the intense polarization that once engulfed the nation. In this article, we will delve into the findings of More in Common’s research and explore the reasons behind the shifted loyalties and changing attitudes towards Brexit.
The Erosion of Brexit Identity
Once considered a defining characteristic of voters, the significance of Brexit as an integral part of their identity seems to be waning. More in Common’s research reveals that the number of people who list their Brexit vote as an important part of their identity has dropped from 50 percent to 39 percent. In contrast, political party loyalty has regained its prominence. This shift indicates a move towards a more nuanced understanding of political allegiances, with Brexit no longer occupying the central position it once held.
Unequal Decline in Brexit Identity
The erosion of Brexit identity has not been evenly distributed between Leavers and Remainers. While both groups initially placed similar importance on their Brexit vote, the number of Leavers who consider it crucial to their identity has declined by 19 points, whereas among Remainers, this decrease is only four points. Therefore, it is the Remain camp that currently drives the lingering attachment to the Brexit identity.
The Perception of Brexit Failure
One of the driving factors behind this asymmetry is the perception that Brexit has not been a success. More in Common’s research highlights that nearly two-thirds of voters, including almost half of Leave voters, believe that Brexit has not delivered the desired outcomes. If a new referendum were to occur today, the majority of Britons would vote to reunite with the European Union by a margin of 58:42, with a significant portion of Leavers changing their stance. This perception of failure has resulted in a weakened emotional attachment to the Brexit identity.
Implications for Political Parties
Labour’s Shift Towards Cooperation
The changing mood of the public has not gone unnoticed by politicians. While the Conservative Party remains cautious about proposing closer cooperation with the EU due to its Brexiter wing, recent signals from the Labour Party suggest a shift towards a closer relationship. Although membership of a customs union or the single market is still ruled out, these shifts in rhetoric reflect an acknowledgment of the evolving attitudes towards Brexit and the need to cater to the changing sentiments of voters.
Trouble for the Tories
The diminishing loyalty towards the Leave camp spells trouble for the Conservative Party, particularly in domestic politics. During the 2019 election, socially conservative but economically left-wing voters played a pivotal role in driving Conservative victories in Northern and Midlands constituencies, forming the “red wall.” However, as Brexit allegiance weakens and economic concerns resurface, these voters are not only expressing “Bregret,” but also growing dissatisfaction with the Tories themselves. Rising inflation and interest rates, as well as worries regarding the National Health Service, have led to an increasing estrangement between this voter group and the ruling party.
The Challenge of Permanencia Identities
Compounding the electoral problem for the Conservative Party is the greater durability of Remain identities. The rigidity of these identities hinders the Tories from compensating for their losses in the red wall by regaining the allegiance of traditional Tory voters who walked away after Brexit. While Prime Minister Rishi Sunak enjoys popularity among this group, the overall reputation of the Tory brand acts as a barrier to their return as party supporters.
Preparations for Future Elections
A Double-Edged Sword
Electoral realignments prompted by Brexit had favored the Conservative Party during the 2019 election. However, amidst the changing dynamics, the tables could turn in the next elections. The impact of weakening Brexit allegiance is likely to have its greatest repercussions in the realm of domestic politics, potentially posing challenges to the Tories. The speed and extent of this change are proving to be more rapid and unexpected than initially anticipated.
Conclusion
The research conducted by More in Common provides valuable insights into the changing dynamics of Brexit in the United Kingdom. The once all-encompassing divide between Leavers and Remainers is gradually softening, with Brexit no longer occupying the central position it once held in people’s identities. As political allegiances shift and perceptions of Brexit failure dominate, politicians are starting to adapt their strategies to cater to the changing mood of the public. The implications for the Conservative Party are significant, particularly concerning their support in the red wall constituencies. Understanding these evolving dynamics and preparing for future elections will be crucial for political parties aiming to secure the loyalty of voters in post-Brexit Britain.
Summary
In the aftermath of the 2019 election and the Brexit referendum, research conducted by More in Common has revealed a softening of the once-pervasive divisions tied to Brexit. The importance of Brexit as an identity marker has diminished, with political party loyalty taking its place. The decline of Brexit identity has been more pronounced among Leavers, indicating a shift driven by Remainers. The perception of Brexit as a failure contributes significantly to this change. Politicians, including the Labour Party, have taken note of the changing sentiments and are adjusting their approach accordingly. However, for the Conservative Party, the weakening allegiance to Leave poses a challenge, particularly in retaining support from socially conservative but economically left-wing voters. Meanwhile, the durability of Remain identities acts as a barrier for the Tories in regaining traditional supporters who disengaged after Brexit. Preparing for future elections will require an understanding of these shifting dynamics and addressing concerns such as inflation, interest rates, and the National Health Service. By adapting their strategies, political parties can navigate the post-Brexit landscape and secure the support of an evolving electorate.
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The writer is UK director of More in Common, a think tank
In the heat of the 2019 election, it was hard to imagine that Brexit would not forever dominate our national conversation. From popular vote marches and Boris Johnson’s bulldozer to debates at family dinners, the UK seemed stuck in its 52:48 split between going and staying. Those loyalties were so pervasive that in the More in Common poll conducted in the aftermath of that election, half of voters told us that how they voted in the 2016 referendum was an important part of their identity, significantly more than a third. who said the same thing about the political party they had just voted for.
Nearly four years after Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” campaign, and seven years after the referendum, our latest research he finds that those divisions, which seemed like a lasting schism, are softening. Not only has membership of the EU dropped down the list of important issues from 1 to 11 (and almost never appears spontaneously in our focus groups), but the number of people who say Brexit is an important part of their identity has fallen from 50 percent to 39 percent Political loyalty has once again become a more important marker.
And that Brexit depolarization has not been symmetrical. After the 2019 election, those who dropped out and those who stayed were just as likely to say their Brexit vote was important to their identity. But now, the number of Leavers who say it matters has fallen 19 points, while among Remain voters it has fallen just four points. So what lingers about the Brexit identity is largely being driven by Remainers.
Why is this? One obvious reason is that we finally left the EU; defending the status quo arouses less passion than a campaign. But our research suggests a larger driver of that asymmetry: the perception that Brexit has, so far, been a failure.
Nearly two-thirds of voters in our research, including nearly half of Leave voters, say Brexit has not been successful. If a new referendum were to be held today, Britons would vote to reunite by a margin of 58:42, with one in seven Leavers changing their vote.
Politicians have noticed this change. While the Conservatives cannot risk upsetting their Brexiter wing by proposing more cooperation with the EU, recent noises from the Labor front aiming for a closer relationship — while ruling out membership of a customs union or the single market — are a nod to the changing mood of the public.
But the biggest impact of weakening loyalty to Leave is likely to be seen on domestic politics, and this is bad news for the Tories. At the center of his 2019 support was a group of socially conservative but economically left-wing voters who had traditionally backed Labour. This group turned the Tories around, driving their victories in the Northern and Midlands seats into what is known as the red wall, largely due to Brexit.
As Brexit allegiance crumbles and the economy regains its role as the ultimate political engine, this group is not only voicing “Bregret” but increasingly voicing “Torygret” as well. Concerns about inflation and interest rates, along with concerns about the NHS, mean that the group that once appeared to be the new Conservative base is registering the furthest estrangement from the ruling party.
This electoral problem is compounded by the fact that Permanencia identities prove to be more durable. That rigidity prevents the Tories from making up the losses in the red wall by winning back some of the traditional Tories who walked away after Brexit. This group likes Prime Minister Rishi Sunak quite a bit, in contrast to his predecessors, but the broader toxicity of the Tory brand acts as a barrier to returning to voting for the party.
Electoral realignments are a double-edged sword: in 2019, the effects of Brexit on voting patterns benefited the Conservatives. In the next elections, the opposite could happen. And the change is happening faster and in other ways than we could have anticipated.
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