After dominating politics for two decades, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces the toughest political challenge of his career as Turkey prepares for parliamentary and presidential elections on Sunday. Most polls give opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, which is backed by a six-party alliance, a slight edge over the incumbent. The presidential race could go to the second round.
It would be the first time for Turkey. Erdoğan has engineered multiple electoral victories since bringing his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power in 2002. But this contest it’s on the razor’s edge. The crucial question is how the strong man reacts if he feels that his dominance over him is seriously threatened. The 69-year-old has displayed increasingly autocratic tendencies over the past decade and has centralized power around the all-powerful presidential system he adopted after a 2017 constitutional referendum.
It’s clear that Elections in Türkiye they are no longer completely free and fair. By moving towards individual rule, Erdoğan has emptied and politicized state institutions. He happily uses state resources to support his political campaign. The media was gagged. The state of emergency in 10 provinces affected by the February earthquake, which killed 50,000 people and displaced 3 million, is expected to be lifted within days of the vote.
Allegations of voter intimidation and impropriety have become the norm. Opposition officials were prosecuted and jailed; Selahattin Demirtaş, former co-leader of the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), the third largest Kurdish political group, has been in prison since 2016. There are serious concerns about the independence of the High Electoral Council.
When opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu narrowly won the mayorship of Istanbul from the AKP in 2019, the electoral body ordered a repeat after Erdoğan he stated that the contest was full of “irregularities”. İmamoğlu won the second vote and the result was accepted. But the decision to cancel early results smacked of political influence, and there is much more at stake for Erdoğan in Sunday’s contest.
The opposition has been more united for years. It is putting faith in its ability to monitor voting and counting at polling stations across the country, believing it will only be possible to manipulate a small percentage of ballots. However, the closer the race is, the greater the fear of cheating or a controversial outcome. Turkey’s interior minister ominously described the elections as a Western “political coup attempt”.
It is not only Erdoğan’s power that is at stake. The election takes place with the economy in crisis, with skyrocketing inflation and the lira at historic lows. The president’s unorthodox monetary policy is responsible for much of the carnage. He railed against raising interest rates even as inflation rose and neutralized central bank independence.
His slip towards authoritarianism and disastrous economic management have already tarnished his legacy. During his first decade in power, Erdoğan declared himself pro-European and pro-business. He is credited with overseeing an infrastructure transformation during a time of prosperity. But its second decade was marked by a coup attempt, sweeping purges of military and civilian service, and strained relations with Turkey’s Western allies. He cut an increasingly isolated figure, surrounded by flatterers and out of touch with the economic malaise.
Yet in a deeply polarized nation, Erdoğan is arguably Turkey’s most popular politician, with strong support among his conservative base. Coupled with the uneven electoral playing field, this means it would be foolhardy to bet against him. If he loses, he should accept the results. Turkey’s proud history of democracy is at stake.
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