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For years, China has asserted its claims over the South China Sea, a quest for control that is an affront to the security of its neighbors, global trade and, according to a court in The Hague, international law. However, Beijing has been clever: It has used “salami-slicing” tactics to expand its influence by gradually building military facilities, but it has never done so at a pace that would force Washington to take military action.
However, recent disputes with the Philippines suggest that opposition to Beijing is growing. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has ordered his navy to better secure the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef that is much closer to the Philippines than China. He has done so by reinforcing the Sierra Madrea stranded and dilapidated ship that doubles as a Philippine military facility, which China hoped would fall back into the sea.
Beijing, in turn, has become more aggressive. Its paramilitary vessels have rammed Philippine ships and sprayed them with water cannons. Its coast guard has threatened Manila ships with knives and axes. Marcos has tried to draw international attention to the issue. He has also hinted at a red line, saying that any Chinese action that kills a Filipino soldier would be seen as “very close.” . . to an act of war.”
The reef lies in the middle of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and is the heart of a vibrant fishery. Losing its control would threaten Philippine trade and security and harm the many Filipino fishermen who depend on the area. Although confronting the superpower is dangerous, the Philippines has exhausted its diplomatic options.
Manila successfully sued Beijing in arbitration based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The 2016 tribunal found that China was violating the territorial sovereignty of many of its neighbors and asserted Philippine control over the Second Thomas Shoal. But Beijing, a signatory to UNCLOS, has ignored the ruling.
The Philippines’ pleas to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to take a firm stance against China have also been unsuccessful. Even years of overtures to Beijing by Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte didn’t slow down The expansion of China.
This leaves the United States – and the rest of the world – in a complicated situation. The Philippines provides the United States with access to military bases and has a mutual defense agreement with Washington. Escalation risks bringing the two superpowers into conflict.
President Joe Biden got it right taken a firm stance. He has clarified that the mutual defense pact between the countries would extend to an attack on the Sierra Madre. The United States’ position, of course, would be stronger if it were a signatory to UNCLOS itself.
Biden has sought to strengthen the Indo-Pacific buffer against China by bolstering his commitments to the Philippines and Japan. He could also do more to exploit China’s overreach. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, countries that traditionally cooperate with China, have expressed their own concerns about Beijing’s actions. The United States should intensify its efforts to engage them diplomatically and could consider training and supplying their navies.
It is unpredictable how the situation will develop from now on. Beijing’s “non-lethal” methods are intended to reduce the risk of a confrontation. But the situation could easily escalate: after all, a water cannon can cause death. All parties must proceed cautiously and it is positive that Beijing and Washington have reportedly Increased communications during the past week. Beijing should end its brinkmanship and the United States should continue to deter Chinese aggression without crossing the line of provocation.