Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free
Your guide to what the 2024 US elections mean for Washington and the world
After 15 months of unimaginable suffering, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will finally bring some relief to the 2.3 million Gazans who have been trapped in hell under Israeli siege and bombing. It should also bring some closure for the Israeli hostages and their families, who have endured the deepest torment. This is a welcome and long-awaited respite. But, at best, it is just the beginning of the end.
The agreement was sealed by Donald Trump. He backed up his rhetoric with pressure and made sure the war was stopped the day before his inauguration. His intervention apparently managed to obtain concessions from both Israel and Hamas. However, it raises the question of why the United States could not have negotiated a truce much sooner. The multi-phase agreement is based on proposals that President Joe Biden endorsed last May. But his administration never managed to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take the necessary action, instead repeatedly blaming Hamas for the stalemate.
Meanwhile, Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed another 10,000 people, raising the death toll in the strip to more than 46,000, according to Palestinian officials. At least eight hostages and dozens of Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since May. Biden’s failure to persuade Netanyahu to stop the offensive will be a lasting stain on his legacy.
It is now essential for Trump, Qatar and Egypt to keep the pressure on both sides. A big risk is that Netanyahu observes the first six week trucewhen the release of 33 hostages is expected, but refuses to move to the second critical phase: agreement on a permanent ceasefire, release of the remaining hostages and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. Only then can the reconstruction of the destroyed strip begin.
Serious efforts on a post-war plan for Gaza must begin immediately, something Netanyahu’s government has willfully ignored. Hamas, which sparked the year of carnage with its horrific Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed nearly 1,200 people, will no longer rule Gaza. But a credible Palestinian alternative is needed, supported by the United States and its regional partners. Netanyahu and his far-right allies have persistently rejected a role in Gaza for the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the occupied West Bank. They should not be allowed to ruin the process, although extremists in the Israeli government are I’m already trying.
Trump’s role will be crucial. His first term blatantly pursued pro-Israel policies that left Palestinians weaker and increasingly marginalized. However, Trump has made clear that he wants to build on the Abraham Accords he negotiated in 2020, which led the United Arab Emirates and three other Arab states to normalize their relations with Israel. That will require pushing for a grand deal under which Saudi Arabia would accept diplomatic relations with Israel, opening the door for other Arab and Muslim states to follow. The American president would have to convince Israel to take concrete steps toward creating a Palestinian state, which will ultimately be the only solution that will provide it with the security it has always desired.
The other scenario is that Trump pays little attention to the Palestinians and gives the green light to Israel’s expansion of its occupation of Palestinian lands, including the West Bank. This would only fuel further militant resistance to Israel and ensure endless conflict rather than peaceful coexistence.
While Israel emerges militarily stronger, the Biden administration believes Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it lost during the Gaza offensive. Military power alone cannot defeat an extremist ideology. Only a just and peaceful alternative for the Palestinians can achieve this. Efforts to achieve such a solution should begin today. The ceasefire will bring much-needed relief. But Israel and the region are still far from peace.