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The Middle East was destined to change from the moment Hamas militants breached the security barrier around Gaza on October 7, crossed into Israel and killed more Jews than on any other day since the Holocaust. A nation’s worst nightmare came true in the most brutal way. Their enemy devastated homes, murdering and maiming. Some 1,200 people were killed; another 250 were dragged back to Gaza.
Israel received widespread sympathy as it recovered from its darkest day. Allies supported their right to hold those responsible accountable as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war and launched a thunderous attack. offensive against Hamas in Gaza. But there were also words of caution. President Joe Biden warned the traumatized nation to avoid Washington’s mistakes after the 9/11 attacks, when it invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. As the death toll soared in Gaza, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Israel risked substituting “a tactical victory for a strategic defeat” if it did not do more to protect civilians.
These friendly words of advice at a dangerous time for Israel and the region appear to have fallen on deaf ears. Traditional red lines between ancient enemies have been repeatedly crossed and historical precedents have become useless. A year of catastrophic death and destruction has followed, with tragedy layered upon tragedy.
On Monday, Israelis will mark the grim anniversary of October 7 with their country at war not just in Gaza, but on multiple fronts. Hamas is seriously exhausted. But it hasn’t disappeared. Israel’s offensive has caused unimaginable suffering, killing more than 41,000 people, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian health officials. Most Gazans have been driven from their homes as Israeli bombs have reduced large areas of the enclave to rubble. Disease and hunger stalk the population while Israel lays siege to the strip.
Dozens of Israeli hostages remain trapped in a hellish existence, their dying families unaware of their fate. The repeated efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and hostage agreement they have failed. Israel still has no viable post-war plan as Netanyahu promises “total victory.”
Meanwhile, the occupied West Bank has endured one of its bloodiest years in decades under a barrage of Israeli military strikes. Israel has dramatically escalated its offensive against Hezbollah, launching a ground attack in southern Lebanon, while wreaking havoc across the country with waves of airstrikes. More than 1,000 Lebanese have died and 1 million have been displaced.
Hezbollah was wrong to start firing rockets at the Jewish state starting October 8, apparently in solidarity with Hamas. Their attacks forced 60,000 Israelis from their homes and fueled Israeli fears that it faced an existential threat from Iran and the groups it supports and supports. However, there was no evidence that Tehran – long a malign force in the region – was involved in the Hamas attack. Today, Israel escalation against Hezbollahincluding murdering its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the government of Iran retaliatory missile bombardment against Israel, have brought the region to the brink of a feared total war war.
The Biden administration has repeatedly called for a de-escalation, and the crisis underscores its position as the only power with the diplomatic clout to put out the flames. But it has also exposed his powerlessness to control Netanyahu and his far-right allies. He remains defiant, but his country appears increasingly isolated and his government faces accusations of committing genocide in Gaza.
Twelve months of conflict have left Israel without security, its people still traumatized and the region around it suffering and in flames. Israel’s allies have long understood that the path to lasting security for the Jewish state involves a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians, rather than eternal war. Unfortunately, Israel, under Netanyahu, has lost faith in the promise of coexistence and the advice of its friends.