According to a study, aviation will need €300 billion for the EU’s switch to green hydrogen

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Launching hydrogen aircraft in Europe will require €300 billion of investment and require a tax on traditional jet fuel, according to a new study by a clean energy group, which shows the scale of the challenge for policy makers in driving green aviation.

Airbusthe world’s largest aircraft maker, said it wants to fly a zero-emission hydrogen-powered aircraft by 2035, but warned about the pace of development of the necessary infrastructure.

The study released on Monday by the NGO Transport & Environment found that the cost of developing Europe’s hydrogen supply chain would be €299 billion between 2025 and 2050, largely made up of the cost of production, liquefaction and of the distribution of green hydrogen.

The high cost would make hydrogen-powered aircraft 8 percent more expensive than jet-powered aircraft in 2035 unless kerosene was taxed, he estimated.

If jet fuel were taxed and a price on carbon emissions introduced, however, hydrogen aircraft could be 2% cheaper to operate, according to the study.

The research looked at a carbon price of €127 per tonne of carbon dioxide by 2035. The carbon price is now just under €85 per tonafter hitting a high of just over 100 euros a tonne in February, on the EU’s exchange traded system which allows companies to trade carbon emission permits.

Taxation of kerosene has not yet been introduced, but the T&E Group has based its calculations for a tax in line with the current proposals made by the European Commission. This estimates a tax of around €0.37 per litre.

“If we want Airbus to follow suit, we will have to create a market for zero-emission aircraft, taxing fossil fuel and mandating zero-emission aircraft in the future,” said Carlos López de la Osa, aviation technical manager at T&E.

Airbus said it was “committed to bringing the first hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft to market by 2035, but taxation is not the way to get there.”

“Incentives that promote investment in technology and infrastructure, as well as carbon pricing and market-based measures, provide a more cost-effective way to achieve much-needed reductions in aviation emissions,” he added.

Aviation is proving to be one of the hardest industries to decarbonise, in part because battery technology is not advanced enough to power aircraft over relatively short distances.

Hydrogen, which is obtained by splitting hydrogen atoms from water molecules, has been touted by policy makers as a crucial fuel for decarbonising heavy industries when produced using renewable energy.

The aviation industry is committed to achieving net-zero carbon goals through a mix of new fuel technologies, including the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and hydrogen, as well as aircraft, engines and management of air traffic more efficient.

Opinions differ on how quickly hydrogen could help industry decarbonise given the technical challenges involved, but many aviation experts predict flying will become more expensive.

“Flying in the future will be more expensive. Now there is a way around it,” said de la Osa. “Hydrogen aviation will make economic sense as long as we apply the polluter pays principle. Otherwise the industry will shoot itself in the foot.”

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