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FT editor Roula Khalaf selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is the former UK ambassador to Lebanon and foreign policy advisor to three prime ministers. His latest novel is ‘The Assassin’
The death of Hassan Nasrallah is a seismic moment for the Middle East, raising the danger of a conflict between Israel and Iran that would be devastating for civilians and send tremors far beyond the region.
Hezbollah’s Secretary General may have been hidden from public view for decades, but he was present at every discussion. As ambassador in Beirut, I remember many nights gathered around the radio, waiting to hear whether his latest speech – in response to an assassination or a military attack – would increase or decrease the danger. It was often the latter, but always with the threat of violence to come. The most powerful man in the country enjoyed theater, the ability to keep us all in suspense.
Nasrallah was an evil genius. He built a formidable fighting machine, backed by his sophisticated public communications skills and soft power (schools, hospitals, social care, infrastructure) that meant his control of southern Lebanon was not based on fear alone. He was also able to ensure, through assassination, street influence, and a deft ability to divide and rule, that no Lebanese government could survive without his acquiescence. And that most could barely function even with it.
The region is now preparing for the next decisions made by hardliners in Iran and Israel. Many fight for their own survival, not for the interests of the people they claim to represent.
Last week in New York, Iran had strongly signaled to Western diplomats that it did not want an escalation, leaving Hezbollah furious that they were being abandoned. Iran’s main strategic fear, broader normalization between Israel and the Gulf, has been buried for now in the catastrophic conflict that followed Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 last year. Some in Tehran think they should not interrupt their enemy in the process of making a mistake, arguing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has isolated his country for a decade and made inevitable the outcome he has fought for throughout his life. turbulent race: a Palestinian state.
In the meantime, Israeli decisions will continue to be driven by domestic politics rather than international pressure. Netanyahu has sought to steer the story away from domestic and international criticism of the conduct of the Gaza war. Israel has hit Hezbollah very hard, physically and psychologically. Some in Tel Aviv argue that a ground invasion – what hardliners call “mowing the grass” – could further degrade or destroy Hezbollah. But calmer voices recognize the immense damage that more massive civilian casualties would cause to Israel’s reputation. A ground invasion would allow Hezbollah to rebuild popularity and trust that has been lost due to its actions against its critics in Lebanon and propping up Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
For the Lebanese there will be mixed emotions. Parts of the community will celebrate the removal of a man who for years has maintained brutal control over the country. But there is also widespread horror at the loss of civilian life and fear that Hezbollah, which will not remain leaderless for long, will now have no choice but to unleash what remains of its arsenal against Israel, sparking a new cycle. bloody retaliation.
Diplomats have talked for months about the danger of war between Israel and Hezbollah. We are already past that point. There had been genuine confidence in New York this week, following the UK’s swift call for a ceasefire and the declaration by US, European and Arab leaders pushing for a 21-day cessation of hostilities. But hope faded when Netanyahu publicly shook his fist at the world from the UN podium and then raised the stakes so dramatically. The mood now is despondent.
However, those working hardest to bring the region back from the brink know what it takes. First, the implementation of UN resolutions and constant pressure to stop the escalation. Then, get the Lebanese army to join the UN on the Israel-Lebanon border and return the authority of the Lebanese state (not Iran or Hezbollah) to southern Lebanon. A ceasefire agreement in Gaza that allows the removal of Israeli hostages and allows aid in remains essential: this could create the conditions for the two-state solution that Hamas, Hezbollah and Israeli hawks want to bury. Security, justice and opportunity can only be achieved through coexistence, not the zero-sum cycle of fear and destruction that Nasrallah was a part of.
Above all, despite the growing sense of helplessness and despair, the international community must now – unequivocally and consistently – put the protection of civilians from death or displacement at the center of its strategy. The victim figures are staggering. The humanitarian community is already underfunded, overstretched and under attack.
Nasrallah lived by the sword. Today I heard from many friends across the region who lost family members, friends or political leaders as a result of their decisions. The emotions of those who cry or celebrate are raw. The fear of what awaits us is real. In death as in life, Nasrallah keeps his enemies and allies in suspense.