An anxious future for Türkiye’s economy and democracy

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After singing victory In the second round of the presidential election on Sunday, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that “Turkey was the only winner” as he addressed his jubilant supporters. Yet as the veteran president’s loyalists celebrate, millions of other Turks will bow their heads in dismay, distraught over what another five years of strongman rule means for their polarized country. They are right to be concerned. Even Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics for two decades, must realize that he does not have time to enjoy his triumph if his nation is to avoid sinking further into economic crisis.

The elections took place against the backdrop of an acute cost-of-living crisis, with Turkey’s currency at record lows and inflation hovering at 44 percent. The crisis is largely a result of erdoğanThe pursuit of unorthodox economic policies by .

The pressure on the state’s dwindling resources will be increased by a series of blatant election giveaways, including changing retirement age regulations and raising the salaries of civil servants. Your currencies and gold reserves dropped $17 billion in the six weeks leading up to the first round of voting on May 14, when Erdogan sought to prop up the economy and currency ahead of the polls, according to official Financial Times calculations. The state is also dealing with a near-record current account deficit.

However, Erdoğan’s policies, along with his tendency to pick fights with Western allies and his drift toward authoritarianism, have long since scared off foreign investors who could provide much-needed hard currency. This is not sustainable. The state is running out of resources to defend the lira.

Erdoğan has to put aside his personal quirks, return to conventional monetary policy, and take serious steps to restore the credibility of state institutions. Only then would Ankara have any chance of convincing cautious investors to come back. But if Erdogan sticks to his style, the West can look forward to another era of unpredictable and testy relations with the NATO member.

There are also concerns about what Erdogan’s victory will mean for the country’s democracy. Since he first led his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power 21 years ago, he has consolidated power and centralized decision-making at unprecedented levels, moving ever closer to one-man rule. He has replaced Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an all-powerful executive presidency since pushing through a constitutional referendum in 2017. Elections are taking place on an uneven playing field. Majority of the mainstream media have come under government control. Opposition politicians, journalists, academics and businessmen languish in prisons.

The jailed list includes Selahattin Demirtaş, the leader of the Kurdish-dominated Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), who has been behind bars since 2016. The specter of a ban on politics, and possible prison, looms. looms over Ekrem İmamoğlu, the leader of Istanbul. mayor and leading figure in the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) after he was convicted in December of insulting election officials.

Many others will be afraid of their civil liberties. During the campaign, Erdoğan, who has courted ultranationalists, repeatedly attacked his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, for being pro-LGBT rights and supporting terrorists, a thinly veiled reference to his outreach to Kurdish voters.

Supporters of the president will point to another victory at the polls as further evidence of Erdogan’s enduring popularity. But the fact that he was forced into the runoff after neither he nor Kılıçdaroğlu garnered more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round underscores the political gulf between those who love or hate the divisive leader. Constitutionally, this should be Erdogan’s last term. If indeed he is, it would be prudent to consider the legacy he intends to leave behind. But whichever course he chooses, Turkey risks getting into troubled and stormy waters.