The writer is president of Rockefeller International
In 30 road trips over 25 years after the elections in India with a group of writers, I have seen endless surprises, none more heartening than the story we found last month in the southern state of Karnataka. It’s a new economic miracle, unfolding in a vibrant local democracy that challenges widespread concerns about one-party rule in India.
With a population of around 70 million, Karnataka is larger than most countries. As the state heads to the polls on May 10, its story matters not only to India but also to the world, both economically and politically.
On our last election trip to Karnataka five years ago, the signs of underdevelopment – thatched roofs, rotten shop windows – were still visible. Now they are overshadowed by the symbols of progress: red-tiled roofs and gaily painted concrete walls. In a rural village where we had previously expected to see packs of stray dogs, we met a breeder who was selling Rottweilers for $500 a puppy.
Over the past decade, a long-standing boom in Karnataka’s capital Bangalore, spearheaded by global tech giants, has begun to sweep across the agricultural country. Agriculture and related services have joined technology to drive growth. Karnataka has grown much faster than the rest of India, rising from 16th place to become India’s third richest state by per capita income, behind only tiny Goa and Sikkim. Since India’s post-independence records began in 1960, no other major state has grown so fast. Karnataka’s median income doubled in the 2010s to $3,800.
We started our latest trip in Bengaluru which was its dynamic old self, only with the traffic worse than ever. Infosys chairman Nandan Nilekani told us people kept coming nonetheless, drawn by the pull of a tech ecosystem that has attracted 45 percent of all start-up investment in India.
From Bangalore we headed southwest on a smooth new highway to the town of Mysuru, then turned north inland. In Varuna, the kind of farming town where you often see water buffalo sipping at the edge of a muddy pond, we came across a lake with jet skis cutting through the surface. This leisure image seemed strangely out of place until we found more of the same thing: a wedding with guests at a fake Dolce & Gabbana, a barber charging nearly $5 to dye their hair, an impossible sum in the poorest states of India. The realization that Karnataka is different now hit us on the third day of our week-long trip when we came across an apartment building that stood in a rural village.
Karnataka has grown by nearly 8% annually over the past decade, a full two points above the national average, and its booming economy is funding new welfare spending, which has nearly tripled in the 2010s. Funds from the welfare now flows directly to beneficiaries through India’s national digital transfer system, helping the Bengaluru boom to spread to rural areas.
Agriculture here grew 7% annually in the 2010s, well above the national average. The state government promoted agricultural technologies and more profitable crops, such as areca nuts and mangoes. More than eight out of 10 people in rural Karnataka have a smartphone, double the number five years ago, and new mobile services are giving farmers new access to credit. Near the city of Hubli, we met a tractor parts dealer who said that, thanks to online credit, his sales were booming.
No miracle is perfect. Voters in Karnataka say their grievances now include unemployment and residual poverty — which became more visible the further north we traveled — and official corruption. Polls show that the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party is doomed to defeat, which is hardly surprising. In India’s early past system, small swings can topple governments. Voters across the country have a long history of sacking incumbent governments, even when the local economy is booming and Karnataka hasn’t brought an incumbent government back to power in decades.
Defeat would leave the BJP and its allies in power in just 14 states nationwide, which represent less than half of India’s national population. Democracy is therefore more competitive than ever in Karnataka, which could provide an alternative window into India for the many commentators who fear that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi it is pushing the country towards authoritarianism and Hindu chauvinism.
India is best understood as many countries, not one, too complex to be dominated by one party or leader. Though my optimism always grows as I walk away from Delhi’s toxic national politics, I have rarely come away from a trip here more optimistic. In Karnataka, capitalism and democracy work well, and these days that counts as a real miracle everywhere.
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