Unlock Editor’s Digest for free
FT editor Roula Khalaf selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Once upon a time, you could judge the state of the banking industry by walking around and looking at ties.
Since the first “Casual Fridays” of the 1990s, investment banks seemed to have this pattern of relaxing their dress code during bull markets and then re-insisting on suits and ties when revenues contracted.
Thus, as the dotcom bubble built up, financial world It looked a little like this:
But a couple of years latereveryone was back in suits (and not just because they were in fraud trial).
In 2006, things had change once again, only for the Great Financial Crisis to punish casual business bankers. In 2010, UBS gave its bankers instructions on your underwear.
And then the cycle. . . something like finished. People simply stopped wearing ties and little by little suits followed. Nowadays, if you see someone in a suit and tie at an investment bank, they are either very young, very old, attending a conference, or about to ask for your security pass.
You might have thought that “remote work policies” could play the role of the dress code in the new post-Covid market. There is a similar combination of psychological and economic factors.
On the one hand, difficult markets produce a feeling of helplessness in managers, who try to compensate by looking for things they could control, such as their employees’ clothing. On the other hand, strong income conditions tend to be associated with tight labor markets, making it difficult to reduce workers’ benefits.
That’s why it’s very interesting to see that JPMorgan is rumored to be planning to move to “five days in the office” in the coming weeks. Like Bloomberg reported last week:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is preparing to tell all its employees to return to the office five days a week, ending a hybrid work option for thousands of employees and returning to the attendance policy that existed before the pandemic. .
The largest U.S. bank, which employs more than 300,000 people worldwide, is expected to announce the change in the coming weeks, replacing an existing three-day mandate for many of its workers, according to people familiar with the matter. , who asked not to be identified. discussing unannounced plans.
The decision, which could still change, would expand existing rules. announced in April 2023 requiring bank CEOs to be present five days a week. About 60% of the bank’s staff (including many merchants and retail branch workers) already operate under that requirement.
It would make sense to do this if a market slowdown was expected; That was the environment in which the original “three days a week” policy was enacted after the pandemic, and in which the change to four days a week It was tried in some banks in early 2024. But everyone seems to be quite optimistic for 2025and JPMorgan itself has said that it has a “long list” of people you want to hire.
So the chances are, first of all, that the bankers really do I love traveling to the office. Secondly, that the theory is totally wrong and that there was never a real socioeconomic basis for the tie indicator, it was just a coincidence. Third, JPMorgan is wrong and they will not be able to make this policy stick.
And fourth, everyone is right, the indicator is reliable, JPMorgan is going to lead the way and 2025 is actually going to be a really disappointing year.