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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sought to reassure the public about his migration scrutiny after official data on Wednesday showed long-term net arrivals to the UK reached an all-time high of 606,000 in 2022.
But data from the Office for National Statistics suggest measures announced this week to curb foreign students bringing family members with them it will only make a modest difference to the numbers over time.
Net migration to the UK is already leveling off as students arriving in 2021 start to return home. In the meantime, get tied up with work immigration it is increasingly dominated by the hiring of healthcare workers to address the staffing crisis in the healthcare and healthcare sector. The growing number of asylum seekers has also led to a record backlog of applications pending an initial decision from the Home Office.
Even after accounting for uncertainties in the ONS figures, net migration to the UK of 606,000 is undoubtedly a record. This reflects several coexisting factors: the opening of humanitarian routes for people from Ukraine and Hong Kong, a post-Covid surge in cross-border hiring, and a government push to attract foreign students. But as Madeleine Sumption, director of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory notes, net migration may have already peaked in September. “There’s no reason to assume that net migration would stay that high indefinitely,” she said.
The impact of Brexit on cross-border movement with the EU it has been tough: figures show there are now more EU citizens leaving the UK than arriving. But arrivals from the rest of the world have increased, reflecting humanitarian flows from Ukraine since the outbreak of war in February last year, and growing numbers of study or work arrivals, particularly from India, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Pakistan.
The surge in net migration has no single cause. Work paths accounted for about a quarter of last year’s total. Humanitarian visa programs and refugee resettlement made up about a fifth. Separately, asylum seekers, included in ONS figures for the first time, account for 8% of non-EU immigration, with Home Office data showing a backlog of unprocessed applications has risen to a record high as officials failed to keep up with the number of applicants.
Meanwhile, student numbers continued to rise, with 361,000 arriving on student visas, including 85,000 dependents. But their share in net migration has declined, as some 2021 arrivals have graduated and returned home.
The single most dramatic change in work-related migration since the introduction of post-Brexit visa rules for skilled workers has been the increase in overseas recruitment by the NHS and the care sector, which accelerated after the government relaxed the entry rules for minors – skilled health workers.
Separately released data from the Home Office on Thursday showed visa applications for health and care workers outnumbered those for skilled workers in all other sectors in the year to March. If anything, the sector is becoming even more dominant, with figures pointing to a recent slowdown in hiring in other sectors, such as finance and information technology.
The government’s decision to ban foreign students from bringing partners and children with them follows a sharp increase in 2022 in the number of dependents. India and Nigeria were the nationalities with the largest increases in both the number of students and dependents.
The ONS noted that the graduate visa route introduced in July 2021, which allows students to work in the UK for up to three years after completing their studies, could be one of the factors attracting international students.
Home Office data showed that 92,951 previous students used this route, intended to attract talent to the UK, in the year ending March 2023.
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