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The stories that matter about money and politics in the race for the White House
When a mob of Donald Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, many business leaders who had supported the outgoing president finally threw in the proverbial towel. Black Stones Esteban Schwarzman described the attack as “horrific” and the investor Nelson Peltz He said he “regretted” voting for the incumbent. The remorse of wealthy donors appeared to be proof of Trump’s end.
But “Teflon Don” has recovered. So has the support of American magnates. Peltz and Schwarzman say they will support him again. Tycoons who financed Trump’s main competitors, such as Bill Ackman, they seem to have been left behind. Even the traditionally liberal moguls of Silicon Valley are offering your support. Although his rationale varies, many say, in essence, that Trump will be “good for business.”
That stance, however, ignores the major business risks posed by a second term. Trump and his advisers have unleashed a litany of vague policy pronouncements, many of which, if taken seriously, threaten to undermine basic functions of the American economy.
The former president has smeared Jay Powell and said he will replace him as chairman of the Federal Reserve, in a move that could endanger your independence. He has also promised to confront the “deep state” by putting independent agencies under White House control, raising the prospect of regulatory failures. Robert Lighthizer, his possible choice for Treasury secretary, is said to a total devaluation of the dollar, which could destabilize the financial system.
Trump’s trade policies could also be disastrous. He has proposed 10 percent tariffs on all imports and 60 percent levies on chinese products. These broad-based tariffs could reignite inflation and bring the United States closer to open conflict with China. Universal taxes could also hurt businesses if they don’t receive domestic investment, a likely scenario if Trump wins, as he has criticized President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
The American economy success Compared to other developed countries during Biden’s presidency, it appears to have few consequences for business leaders who support Trump. They fear Biden’s tax plans, are disturbed by his administration’s interventionist and antitrust policies, and question his mental acuity.
To be sure, the U.S. economy fared better under Trump than his detractors predicted. Growth was strong and the effective stimulus of the Covid era increased confidence in his management. But the economy has changed since he left office, so many of his proposals may not be fit for purpose.
America’s debt has gotten even bigger. Trump’s planned tax cuts will increase the burden, and analysts They fear they will not provide compensatory stimulus in a higher interest rate environment. His vague aspiration to deport millions of undocumented workers would halt the economy’s momentum, as immigrants are feeding its surge.
In fact, many of Trump’s proposals are confusing. His policies lack details and, like his first term, he could abandon his plans. Some may see Trump’s faltering past as evidence that the radical parts of his agenda are simply rhetoric. They should be careful. Trump’s second term may have lacked “adults in the room” to contain his most incendiary impulses. And a second Trump term appears to be driven by “revenge,” against his enemies and against the democratic system.
Corporate leaders should think critically about what is best for the long-term interests of their businesses. The tax and regulatory gains may seem attractive. But uncertainty, economic radicalism and the degradation of the rule of law risk undermining the conditions that allowed them to prosper in the first place.
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