A new study projects a sharp increase in temperature- and pollution-related mortality, with the impact of temperature exceeding that of pollution for a fifth of the world’s population.
Mortality attributable to air pollution and extreme temperatures is a major concern and is expected to increase in the future. In a new study led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, an international research team found that, under the most likely projection, annual mortality rates related to air pollution and extreme temperatures could reach 30 million by the end of century. The research, based on advanced numerical simulations, suggests a worrying trend: pollution-related deaths are expected to increase five-fold, while temperature-related mortality could increase seven-fold, posing a greater health risk. critical than air pollution for at least 20 years. % of the world population.
The researchers base their calculations on projections from 2000 to 2090, analyzed in ten-year intervals. “In the year 2000, around 1.6 million people died each year due to extreme temperatures, both cold and hot. By the end of the century, in the most likely scenario, this figure will increase to 10.8 million, approximately seven times more. Due to pollution, in 2000 annual deaths amounted to about 4.1 million. By the end of the century, this figure rises to 19.5 million, that is, five times more,” explains Dr. . Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute of Chemistry in Mainz and adjunct associate professor at the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus.
The study shows significant regional differences in future mortality rates. South and East Asia are expected to face the largest increases, driven by aging populations, with air pollution continuing to play a major role. By contrast, in high-income regions (such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia and Asia Pacific) deaths related to extreme temperatures are expected to exceed those caused by air pollution. In some countries in these regions, such as the United States, England, France, Japan and New Zealand, this change is already occurring. The disparity is likely to increase, with extreme temperatures becoming a more significant health risk than air pollution also in countries in central and eastern Europe (e.g. Poland and Romania) and parts of South America (e.g. example, Argentina and Chile).
By the end of the century, temperature-related health risks are expected to exceed those related to air pollution for one-fifth of the world’s population, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive measures to mitigate this growing risk. for public health.
“Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health,” says Andrea Pozzer. “These findings highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive mitigation measures now to avoid future loss of life,” adds Jean Sciare, director of the Center for Climate and Atmosphere Research (CARE-C) at the Cyprus Institute, a key collaborator on the study. .