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UK governments hoping to do poorly in local elections like to leak disaster scenarios in advance, hoping they can later claim they have done better than expected. In any case, the results of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in the polls held on Thursday in England and Wales were almost as bad as they could have been. They leave the party sliding towards defeat in a general election due in January, and Sunak in a precarious position. They also leave the country, in limbo, governed by a government that seems to have run out of direction.
He final score sheet For the conservatives it was a picture of almost absolute pessimism. They lost about half of the council seats they were defending; the Blackpool South parliamentary seat went to Labor in another huge by-election swing. They failed to win nine out of 10 metropolitan mayor elections, including three newly created positions, one of which should be natural conservative territory. His right-wing candidate in London lost to Labor’s Sadiq Khan, who won comfortably despite an indifferent track record.
The Conservatives found comfort in Lord Ben Houchen remaining mayor of Tees Valley. But the sometimes controversial Houchen distanced himself from his party, “forgetting” his blue rosette in the count. A strong personal brand and a history of local achievements. I couldn’t save The Conservatives’ Andy Street in the West Midlands, despite outperforming his party’s national performance.
Street’s overthrow capped a strong performance by the opposition Labor Party, marred only by the loss of council seats in some heavily Muslim areas due to the dissatisfaction with his position about the war in Gaza. His projected national vote share was lower than in recent opinion polls, but Sir Keir StarmerLeaders will be happy to use this as a rallying cry to keep their followers from becoming complacent.
Conservatives risk drawing the wrong conclusions from their defeat. Rumored right-wing plot to overthrow Sunak It initially seemed to have fizzled out, although some rebels may be reconsidering after Street’s loss. Another leadership change would be crazy, really. Installing a fourth prime minister since 2019 would only convince more voters that the Conservatives, in power since 2010, have lost credibility.
Right-wingers are pressuring Sunak to move in the direction of strategies such as his ill-conceived plan to deport irregular migrants to Rwanda. They warn that the populist Reform UK party, founded by Brexiteer Nigel Farage, is gaining votes from the right. However, this amounts to completely misunderstanding the reasons for the Conservatives’ displeasure: they are not seen as capable of resolving key issues for voters in the political centre, including the cost of living and dismal public services.
A turn to the right could, perhaps, reclaim some Reformation territory. But it would cost the conservatives in the center much more. The Conservatives who won or came close to winning in these elections did so because local voters felt they were achieving positive results for them. They offered not small government and tax cuts, but active government backed by public spending. For many centrist voters, the Conservatives have regained their former reputation as an “unlikable” party even if they are ineffective. Doubling this is not a winning combination.
The message of the last election is that much of Britain is crying out for a new beginning. Sunak’s Conservatives may judge that it is in their best interest to wait a few more months before calling an election in the hope that the economy and their fortunes will rebound. In theory, this could give them time to come up with a more convincing electoral offer. But such delay is not in the country’s interest. The UK needs an election as soon as possible and an end to a debilitating sense of disarray and drift.