Demand for coal fell in Europe over the winter despite the energy crisis

The EU burned less coal this winter during the energy crisis than in previous years, according to one analysis, quashing fears that consumption of the most polluting fossil fuel would soar as countries scrambled to find replacements for lost supplies of Russian gas.

The study by energy think tank Ember shows that between October 2022 and March 2023, coal production fell by 27 terawatt hours, or nearly 11% year over year, while gas production fell by 38 terawatt hours, as consumers reduced electricity consumption in response to rising prices.

Renewable energy supplies have also increased, with combined production from wind, solar and hydroelectricity surpassing the production of fossil fuels for the first time, providing 40% of all electricity supplies. The Financial Times verified Ember’s findings with the International Energy Agency, which it said broadly matched its preliminary analysis of Europe’s electricity generation during the winter.

The study shows that fears of a sharp rebound in coal consumption in Europe’s energy mix were overstated, despite the continent’s worst energy crisis in 40 years following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While Russia has cut gas supplies to Europe and managed to raise energy prices for consumers to record levels, the push by governments to rejuvenate aging coal-fired plants to ensure the lights stay on ultimately won’t led to an increase in consumption.

“With Europe made the other end of this winter and major supply disruptions avoided, it is clear that the threatened comeback of coal has not materialized,” Ember analysts said in the report.

“With fossil fuel production declining, emissions from the EU energy sector over the winter were the lowest they have ever been.”

Ember cautioned, however, that Europe was witnessed a mild winter that helped reduce demand for electricity for heating and that there was no guarantee of such weather next winter. Businesses and households had also suffered greatly from higher prices which had led them to cut consumption.

Total electricity consumption between October and March decreased by 94 terawatt hours, or 7%, compared to the same period in winter 2021/22.

“For a lot of people this winter has been really tough with extraordinarily high prices and we shouldn’t lose sight of that,” said Ember analyst Harriet Fox.

“But we cannot rely on next winter to be exactly the same and Europe must act now, including by continuing to promote energy efficiency measures and accelerating the introduction of renewable energies.”

The decline in coal has not been uniform across EU countries. Germany and Poland saw the largest year-on-year decreases in coal use, but three countries – Italy, Finland and Hungary – all recorded increases. Coal consumption in Italy it’s up by more than a quarter, according to Ember.

Nuclear generation also down sharply, mainly due to maintenance issues at the French power plant fleet.

Fox said the long-term benefit of the energy crisis was that countries were becoming more confident in the ability of cleaner forms of energy, including renewable sources, to ensure security of supply.

Wind and solar generation increased 18 terawatt hours year over year during the winter months, up 6%, with similar amounts likely to be added to the grid over the next 12 months.

“People are going to look back on 2022 and 2023 and see that as the time where renewables really started flying,” Fox said. “Governments are realizing that we cannot rely on fossil fuels and that renewable energy can make up the bulk of our energy system.”