Direct Treasury: rates rise again and the pre-set floor drops to 11.31%; frame and CMN on the radar

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Thursday (18) began with corrections in the rates of Direct Treasury bonds, after a general increase the previous day. Today’s session is marked by the reactions to the approval of the urgency for the appreciation of the new fiscal framework in the Chamber of Deputies and the expectation for the meeting of the National Monetary Council (CMN).

Yesterday he Chamber approved urgency for appreciation of the new fiscal framework by 367 votes against 102. With this, the text will not be analyzed in commissions and may be voted on in plenary starting next week, which pleases investors.

Another important issue is the CMN meeting with the presence of Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank. The directors of regulation and relations of the autarchy, Otavio Damaso and Maurício Moura, also participate in the meeting. There is an expectation in part of the market that the revision of the inflation target be discussed, even if it is to announce that there will be no change.

However, analysts interviewed by the infomoney Do not believe news on the subject already in this meeting. Alexandre Yamamoto, a fixed-income analyst at Levante Investimentos, says the matter “would generate a lot of noise with the fiscal framework in place.”

For Fabrício Gonçalvez, general director of Box Asset Management, “it is likely that the members of the CMN will wait for signals from the BC Monetary Policy Committee, especially considering that the approval of the new fiscal rule is gaining momentum.”

Out there, stand out for negotiations on raising the US debt ceiling. There is optimism in the market after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he doesn’t think the US is going to stop paying your debt. President Joe Biden also said, this Wednesday (17), that he was confident that legislators would come together to reach an agreement and avoid a default.

In the Direct Treasury, the day is falling in rates. In inflation-linked titles, the highlight was the IPCA+ 2035 Treasury, which delivered real annual returns of 5.59%, compared to 5.67% the previous afternoon. The IPCA+ 2029 Treasury rate fell from 5.46% to 5.40% per year.

In fixed rate, the title with maturity in 2026 paid 11.31% annual against 11.37% yesterday. The longest paper, due 2033, returned 11.74% a year after delivering 11.82% a year earlier.

Check the prices and rates of government bonds available for purchase in the Direct Treasury this Thursday morning (18):

The plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies approved urgent order for the consideration of the complementary bill dealing with the new tax framework (PLP 93/2023). With this, the text “skips” the processing stages in the thematic commissions and can be voted on directly in plenary next week.

There were 367 votes in favor and 102 against the request presented by deputy José Guimarães (PT-CE), government leader in the legislative house.

The result is a victory for the government after a series of setbacks in the plenary session of the legislative house, but it does not indicate a complete rehabilitation of the Planalto Palace in the face of the articulation problems faced in the first months of President Lula’s third term.

The meeting of the National Monetary Council takes place at 3:00 p.m. this Thursday (18). Analysts heard by infomoney they do not believe that the meeting will generate news about the revision of the inflation target.

Rodrigo Romero, economist at Levante Investimentos, says that “this should be left for June” and “it is very unlikely that the CMN will anticipate the statement of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee at the next meeting.”

US President Joe Biden and congressional leaders appear to be getting closer to a deal to raise the US debt ceiling and avoid a default.

Currently, the US government cannot exceed US$31.3 trillion in debt issues per year, a ceiling that was already reached in January. The impossibility of issuing debt has made the government of Joe Biden difficult.

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