Title: Exploring the Changing Dynamics of the Middle East: A Loom of Time
Introduction:
The Middle East has experienced a significant influx of diplomatic initiatives by external powers, pointing to a world in flux with a relative decline in American power. In his book “The Loom of Time,” renowned geopolitical analyst Robert D. Kaplan delves into the powerful forces that are reshaping the region. Kaplan’s extensive experience in the Middle East and his in-depth understanding of its complexities make his perspective on the region both controversial and thought-provoking. In this article, we will explore the key themes and arguments presented in Kaplan’s book while providing additional insights into the changing dynamics of the Middle East.
The Rise of a Disorderly, Multipolar World:
Kaplan argues that the recent realignments in the Middle East, such as the restoration of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia brokered by China and the advancement towards a pact between Saudi Arabia and Israel by the United States, are not signs of stability but rather indicative of a disorderly, multipolar world. With the absence of world empires, the region has struggled to find an adequate solution to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. These shifts in power dynamics highlight the evolving nature of global geopolitics and the need to understand the external forces shaping the Middle East’s future.
The Habits of Old-Fashioned Foreign Correspondents:
“The Loom of Time” serves as a defense of the habits of traditional foreign correspondents, emphasizing the importance of on-the-ground reporting and engaging with local communities. Kaplan weaves a tapestry of history, travel, reportage, memory, and geography to provide a comprehensive understanding of the region. By immersing himself in the region’s cultures, he challenges prevailing narratives and offers a nuanced perspective on issues such as Orientalism and the misinterpretation of the Islamic world by Westerners.
Redescribing the Region: The Greater Middle East:
One of Kaplan’s notable contentions is the need to redefine the Middle East as the “Greater Middle East.” He argues that this term encompasses the Islamic world of deserts and plains, stretching from Ethiopia and the Mediterranean to China’s western province of Xinjiang. This geographic redeployment helps us better grasp the external forces that shape the region’s trajectory. Similarly, the concept of the Indo-Pacific in East Asia has recently gained traction as a way to broaden horizons and understand the complexities of the region.
The Challenge of Democracy and Admiration for Benevolent Autocrats:
Kaplan challenges the notion that democracy is the answer to the Middle East’s stability woes. Instead, he argues for a certain kind of benevolent autocracy, finding stability in Gulf monarchies like Jordan, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates. While he acknowledges their limitations in terms of civil liberties and independent political institutions, Kaplan sees these autocratic regimes as relatively stable guardians against chaotic transitions. However, his view on favoring autocracy contradicts the American emphasis on promoting democracy, making it a challenging argument to sustain given the United States’ track record in the Middle East.
The Temptation of Neo-Imperialism and the Quest for Stability:
Kaplan suggests that the United States should adopt a quasi-imperial role in the Middle East to bring stability to the region. He reflects on the historical successes of imperial rule in maintaining some form of stability and even periods of relative tolerance. However, his suggestion for the recreation of such a system is met with skepticism, especially considering the destructive consequences of recent neo-imperial conflicts, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Striving for political stability in the absence of a dominant hegemonic power remains a challenge in a multipolar world.
Conclusion:
“The Loom of Time” by Robert D. Kaplan offers a captivating analysis of the Middle East through the lens of history, travel, and geopolitics. While some of his ideas, such as redefining the region as the “Greater Middle East” and advocating for benevolent autocratic rule, are controversial, they stimulate thought and invite discussions on the changing dynamics of global power. Kaplan’s deep understanding of the region and his extensive experience make his insights valuable in navigating the complexities of the Middle East. As the region continues to be a contested zone of influence, understanding its historical context and the forces shaping its future remains essential.
Summary:
In “The Loom of Time,” Robert D. Kaplan examines the powerful forces reshaping the Middle East in a world marked by a decline in American power and the rise of a disorderly, multipolar system. Kaplan defends the habits of traditional foreign correspondents and challenges prevailing narratives on the region. He proposes redefining the Middle East as the “Greater Middle East” and advocates for a certain kind of benevolent autocracy, emphasizing stability over democracy. Kaplan also suggests a quasi-imperial role for the United States in bringing stability to the region. However, the pursuit of stability in a multipolar world remains challenging. Despite some controversial ideas, Kaplan’s insights deepen our understanding of the complexities of the Middle East and the need for a comprehensive approach in navigating its ever-changing landscape.
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The Middle East has recently been inundated with diplomatic initiatives by outside powers. Last March, China brokered a deal to restore ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, underscoring Beijing’s growing regional influence. The United States is now advancing towards a second pact between Saudi Arabia and Israel, provide security guarantees to Riyadh in return for a deal ending decades of enmity with Israel.
Rather than a sign of growing stability, these realignments reflect the rise of a disorderly, multipolar world in which American power is in relative decline.
These changes constitute the main theme of Robert D. Kaplan in The loom of time, a book examining the powerful forces reshaping the Middle East. Its instability is often attributed to too much interference from outsiders. Kaplan’s view is the opposite. “There are no more world empires to maintain order. The Assyrian, Roman, Persian, Byzantine, Ottoman, British, Soviet and American empires disappeared from the region,” he wrote. “In summary, after a hundred years, the Middle East has still not found an adequate solution to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. »
It’s provocative to say the least, but Kaplan at least knows the area well. An American geopolitical analyst, he first traveled to the Middle East in his late teens, embarking on a global career as a journalist and author that has since spawned more than a dozen books. One of those, The Arabists, published in 1993, examined a powerful clique of US State Department diplomats working on the Arab world. Now in his seventies, Kaplan has produced what he calls “a book of history, travel, reportage, memory and geography”, structured as a series of travels, from Turkey and Egypt to Iraq, Syria and the autonomous province of Kurdistan.
In this direction, The loom of time is partly a defense of the habits of old-fashioned foreign correspondents: people, like him, who show up in dusty places to ask questions. In doing so, it weaves a lively and opinionated intellectual history, praising American anthropologist Clifford Geertz and his understanding of national cultures, while sharply criticizing Palestinian-American scholar Edward Said and his classic 1978 work. Orientalismwho argues that Westerners often misinterpret the Islamic world as part of an agenda for political domination.
Kaplan makes a whole host of other interesting arguments. One is a call to dub the region “the Greater Middle East”, a term he uses to describe “the Islamic world of deserts and plains” that stretches from Ethiopia and the Mediterranean to the western province of Xinjiang in China. Such geographic redescriptions can be helpful, he suggests, as they give a clearer picture of the external forces shaping the region’s future. Indeed, a similar broadening of horizons has also happened recently in East Asia, which many now dub “the Indo-Pacific”.
Another theme, familiar from his earlier works, is indifference to democracy and admiration for a certain kind of benevolent autocrat. Gulf monarchies like Jordan, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, he argues, stand out as bastions of relative stability. Kaplan was a longtime admirer of Sultan Qaboos, who ruled Oman for half a century until his death in 2020, combining absolute rule with minimal respect for civil liberties and independent political institutions.
Behind all this is a concern about the stability of the regime. “As a journalist traveling the world,” he writes, “I have known regimes across a wide spectrum of gray shades, relatively few of them being either stable and exemplary democracies at one end of the spectrum, or brutal and asphyxiating tyrannies to the other. end.” Unsurprisingly, he considers talk of a global battle between democracies and autocracies – a favorite talking point of US President Joe Biden – to be unnecessary.
Kaplan’s most controversial idea, however, remains his admiration for the empire. Imperial rule often created stable politics, he suggests. Dynasties like the Ottomans even allowed periods of relative tolerance, especially in relation to the nation states that succeeded them. Too often our antipathy to imperial rule is driven by the bloody recent history of European conquest. Instead, writes Kaplan, we should see empire as a natural form of government and a facet of history in almost every part of the world.
As a historical observation, there is some truth in the fact that Imperial rule was not always as bad as claimed. Yet this idea is unfortunately of little use in solving today’s geopolitical problems. Kaplan often implies that the United States should play a role close to a neo-imperial role, bringing stability to otherwise turbulent regions. Washington’s record in the Middle East makes this argument difficult to sustain. Kaplan himself supported the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. It’s a decision he says he regrets today, after seeing that the post-war chaos facing ordinary Iraqis was still worse than the horrible dictatorship it replaced.
The process of recreating a new quasi-imperial system of government in the Middle East or elsewhere would surely be intolerably destructive. Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine, which should be considered a neo-imperial war of conquest, provides but one obvious example. Kaplan’s main idea is therefore what will remain in the absence of any new hegemonic project. The “Greater Middle East”, as he calls it, will continue to be a zone of contention not only between the United States and Russia, but also between emerging Asian powers like China and India. And the political stability that Kaplan longs for will always remain just as elusive.
The loom of time: Between Empire and Anarchy, from the Mediterranean to China by Robert D. Kaplan Random house £25/$30, 400 pages
James Crabtree is executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Asia and author of ‘Billionaire Raj‘
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