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Two points. That’s all that separates rookie Nyck de Vries from his AlphaTauri teammate and 49 Grand Prix veteran Yuki Tsunoda after five races this season. At first glance, that’s not a huge deficit.
But delving into his pure on-track performance, the Dutchman is quite a ways from the Japanese racer, who had to fight tooth and nail to convince Red Bull to keep him for the third year in a row.
So far in 2023, Tsunoda has an average finish of 10.6, having finished every Grand Prix inside the top 11. That’s almost five places better than De Vries, who has an average of 15.3.
In qualifying, De Vries passed the other car for the first time last time out in Miami, but on average he is 0.29sec behind Tsunoda over a lap.
There have also been a large number of mistakes and crashes, and this has led to much speculation that De Vries is already under pressure to keep his seat, not least because Red Bull has a history of making quick changes, even in the middle of the season.
However, that is not necessarily the fate that awaits the 28-year-old de Vries at this stage.
Classification Azerbaijan GP 2023: De Vries crashes in Q1 to bring out the red flags
For one thing, he’s only had five races. That’s simply not enough time for most drivers to get their feet under the table in F1. AlphaTauri boss Franz Tost has long said that drivers need three years before they are really up to speed.
Second, Red Bull battled Alpine and Williams to secure the Dutchman’s services for this year, the energy drink firm impressed by his scoring debut at Monza in a one-off appearance as a substitute for the ailing Alex Albon last season.
They will be eager for De Vries to deliver the kind of performances that show they made the right decision fighting for him, and that will buy him more time.
Third, Red Bull accepts that this year’s AlphaTauri is one of the least competitive cars on the grid. At some tracks, it’s been the worst of all. Finding a rhythm and testing himself with such machinery is not an easy task, so De Vries must be given a bit of leeway.
Lastly, and perhaps the most compelling reason he’s likely to stick around for the foreseeable, a replacement isn’t obvious.
What are the alternatives?
It is believed that while Red Bull is known to have been impressed by Daniel Ricciardo’s simulator performance following his return to the team as the third driver, the Australian is not currently on the shortlist for an AlphaTauri.
READ MORE: Ricciardo confirms where and when he will take to the track in Red Bull’s 2023 F1 car
Yes, he had a seat adjustment, which sources say took place in Miami, not Faenza, as has been widely reported, but that is common practice as all the drivers Red Bull has as backers for both the works team and for AlphaTauri they will at some point. so that they are ready to intervene if necessary.
The two candidates that would head the list are Red Bull juniors Liam Lawson, who competes in Super Formula, and Ayumu Iwasa, who is in F2 but, unlike Lawson, does not yet have a Super license. Both are currently third in their respective championships and very much contenders for the title.
Leaving them to complete the season and accumulate significant experience at the end of very competitive championships, while hopefully taking home the ultimate trophies, would be the preferred option for Red Bull.
It is more likely that, at the very least, De Vries will have until the end of the season to prove he has what it takes to compete in F1. But he will have to improve fast.
Beating Tsunoda is a must, as one source has suggested that there will very likely be a fight between him and the Japanese rider for a seat next year, with Red Bull keen to give a junior a chance in the other seat. as part of his ongoing plan to use AlphaTauri as a school for the Red Bull works team.
What does all this mean for Ricciardo?
So what are Ricciardo’s options, then, if AlphaTauri is an unlikely destination and Sergio Perez continues his top form that will keep him entrenched in the Red Bull seat alongside Max Verstappen?
Well, it’s still in a decent spot. More importantly, it looks like he’s getting his mojo back, and that’s crucial if the Australian is to regain the form that has earned him eight Grand Prix wins.
He will also get some time in the current machinery, with a run in the Red Bull RB19 at the Pirelli test after the British Grand Prix and probably a second test at another round after the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.
READ MORE: Ricciardo says shortage of free F1 seats for 2024 ‘doesn’t scare me’
“I’m excited to drive again and try to remind a team I was once very successful with that I can still put in a fast lap,” he said.
Reminding Red Bull of what you’re capable of might not be enough to get you a seat with them, but impressing them and others might well notice, as was the case with Albon, who proved himself as Red Bull’s reserve driver and he secured a return to the grid with Williams the following year.
There are several contracts up for renewal, which means there are openings on the grid, including at Mercedes, although a seat at Silver Arrows is a long shot for Ricciardo.
We’re not far from that point in the season where the driver’s target lists are more thought about. I understand that a team boss started thinking seriously about his drivers for 2025 as early as January of this year.
Big performances, then, for the likes of De Vries et al can’t come soon enough.
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