Preparing for the Uncertainty of Climate Change
With the arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon, the world faces a period of climate uncertainty. Predictions suggest that more heat will soon be pumped into an already warming atmosphere, and although the symbolic 1.5ºC global warming limit may be temporarily exceeded, the arrival of El Niño marks an even greater threat: extreme weather. Economists and politicians will to have to factor in food insecurity, crop failure and spiraling commodity prices while showing concern for what might lie ahead.
El Niño, a Warming and Natural Climate Cycle
El Niño is the warming phase of a natural climate cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, characterized by higher sea surface temperatures and changes in wind and precipitation patterns. Its opposite, cooling phase, is called La Niña. Together, they form the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and their weakening and strengthening trade winds respectively, impact the jet streams that drive weather around the world.
Climate Uncertainty: The Unexpected Impact
The uncertainty of predicting how countries should prepare, particularly in relation to long-term forecasts at a country-specific level, underpins the future challenges ahead. This affects the investment in adaptation, such as building flood defenses, and thus demands a new approach. One such adaptation is the creation of a “Climate Change Cern,” an international approach modeled on the famed multinational particle physics effort at CERN in Geneva. There, experts explore the possible ways that the Enso Cycle might alter in a warming world.
The Trillion-Dollar Question
The question remains: how might climate change affect the frequency and strength of El Niño and La Niña events globally? The answer is elusive and demands global cooperation.
The Arrival of El Niño: What it Means, and Why We Should Care
With clear and straightforward criteria officially applied, and NOAA’s recent announcement formally marking the onset of El Niño, now is the time for governments, stakeholders and individuals to examine the potential consequences. Notably, researchers predict more precipitation in the Southern US and hotter and drier weather patterns to emerge in Northern South America, Southern Africa, Southern Asia, and Southern Australia. Yet, the true impact of El Niño remains uncertain, as to when it might peak and what lies ahead. Nonetheless, the weather phenomenon’s warming effect, which may soon exceed the symbolic 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, means its arrival should concern us all.
Temperature Records Set to Tumble
Even if the warmest year ever recorded so far is characterized as a temporary increase, 28 countries already reported the warmest years on record in 2022. Spain experienced record April temperatures, while Canada faced massive wildfires, and the resultant smoke caused choking skies over New York. The unexpected is slowly becoming the norm, and government officials and stakeholders at every level must prepare, create strategies and invest resources for what might come.
Summary
The arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon brings a period of climate uncertainty to the world. While El Niño is the “warming” phase of a natural climate cycle and followed by La Niña’s cooling phase, they represent a period of global adaptation demand that includes building flood defenses. While global cooperation is crucial to answering the so-called “trillion-dollar question,” predicting how climate change impacts El Niña and La Niña globally remains difficult. To prepare for potential crop failures, food insecurity and spiraling commodity prices, governments, and stakeholders must focus on developing adaptive strategies to unexpected weather patterns.
Preparing our Societies for Climate Change’s Uncertainty
The world’s economy and its societies are facing unprecedented challenges. Recently, wildfires out of control in California raised temperatures beyond acceptable levels. Vintners ponder if their industries will be sustainable in the future. Similar challenges face the entire agricultural industry globally.
With many uncertainties surrounding the El Niño weather phenomenon, and coupled with the ever-increasing global temperature, the climate-hurricane nexus occurs more frequently. Due to temperature increases, locations once considered safe face floods, storms, and heatwaves with increasing frequency and intensity.
Governments must carefully monitor and take note of crop failures due to damage caused by weather catastrophes. Food security remains a key issue. The rising price of food means that access becomes a problem in areas already strained by the pandemic and recovery. Also, the need to invest in regenerative farming practices is crucial, as it ensures the continued prosperity of agri-business and its global supply chains.
The uncertainty of climate change’s impact is putting ever-more pressure on the world economy, with economists struggling to predict future variables. Policies that render the economy resilient to shocks brought on by unexpected weather patterns are crucial. Governments, and stakeholder organizations, should work to create opportunities for alternative industries to emerge as the world adapts to changing circumstances.
Sustainable Horticulture and Wastewater Reuse Are Part of the Solution
Changing the agricultural landscape means considering the impact of urbanization on food security. In Israel, where freshwater is scarce, wastewater is available, and experts suggest the reuse of such water to promote horticulture. For example, the Beit She’an Valley regional council uses wastewater to grow fish in ponds, creating a sustainable, and profitable, business venture.
As we brace to face the uncertain future of climate change, environmentalist organizations have called on governments to commit to investing in regenerative farming practices. Such farming practices could ensure the continued prosperity of agri-business and its global supply chains, creating new industries and refashioning existing ones.
Realizing a sustainable future also means further investment in the green sector, green energy and investing in regenerative business practices. The uncertainty of climate change threatens economic stability, their ecosystems, and their populations and must be taken seriously. Governments, along with industry stakeholders, must embrace opportunities for alternative industries to emerge as societies adapt to changing circumstances.
Statistics and Research
· The cost of preparing agriculture for climate change: $200bn
· Failure to prepare for climate change could lead to a $30tn financial shock by 2100, according to BlackRock.
· The impact of global climate change on fruit and vegetable production could increase by 34-72% in Southeast Asia, and by 6-13% in southern Europe.
· In Spain, wildfires destroyed 63,000 hectares in 2022.
· 28 countries have recorded their warmest years on record in 2022.
Conclusion
Climate change is an urgent challenge that demands immediate attention and global cooperation. Its uncertainty puts great pressure on the world economy, food security, and water security, forcing governments and stakeholders to invest in alternative industries and regenerative practices. New industries will emerge, reshaping and reshaping existing global industries, ensuring stability, new opportunities, and ongoing prosperity.
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The writer is a scientific commentator
When temperatures in the UK reached a record 40C last year, Imperial College climate scientist Friederike Otto responded to comparisons with the 1976 heatwave by noting: ‘By definition unprecedented means that It’s never happened before.”
Get ready for more of the same. Last week, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the official arrival of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, but not in a predictable way. The change, linked to rising sea surface temperatures, will push more heat into an already warming atmosphere: some scientists predict that the symbolic 1.5°C limit on global warming could soon be temporarily exceeded.
Whether that happens or not, the arrival of El Niño heralds a new period of climate uncertainty and that, with the associated risk of extreme weather, economists and politicians ignore at their peril. Even the best plans for dealing with the rising cost of living will have to factor in crop failures and spiraling commodity prices. It also offers a preview of what might happen along the way.
El Niño can be viewed as the “warming” phase of a natural climate cycle in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its opposite cooling phase is called La Niña. Together, they make up the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso) cycle, weakening and strengthening the trade winds, respectively. These changes affect the jet streams that drive storms around the world.
NOAA’s statement last week means, according to Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, that three criteria have been met: a defined area of the tropical eastern Pacific is more than 0.5°C warmer than to the long-term average; warming should continue; and the atmosphere is showing signs of responding to that warming.
The atmospheric response to El Niño, which is expected to strengthen across the Northern Hemisphere in fall and winter, is essentially an alteration in wind and precipitation patterns: Researchers expect it to get wetter in the southern US; and hotter and drier in northern South America, southern Africa, southern Asia, and southern Australia. But beyond that, uncertainty abounds, including as to when El Niño might peak.
This could happen this year or next; or it may vanish. “It’s too early to tell how the current El Niño storyline will play out,” says Allan. “But if it unleashes its full force in 2024, it is very likely that another global temperature record will be broken.” Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization said temperatures could move into “uncharted territory,” with impacts on health, food safety, water management and the environment. The mood among climatologists seems to be one of uncertainty enriched with trepidation.
One challenge is predicting how countries should prepare: while climate models work reasonably well on a global scale, according to Professor Tim Palmer, a climate physicist at the University of Oxford, they are less effective at making long-term forecasts at the country level. . This will matter in the coming years as nations invest in adaptation, such as building flood defences. Palmer is among those advocating for a “Climate Change Cern,” a massive multinational supercomputing effort to make high-resolution forecasts and to explore how the Enso cycle might alter in a warming world.
For the many countries directly affected by El NiñoThis is the “trillion-dollar question” Palmer says: How might climate change affect the frequency and strength of El Niño and La Niña events in the future? “It’s an extraordinarily complex issue that cannot be addressed at the national level,” she says, suggesting it should be modeled on the international particle physics effort at CERN in Geneva that found the Higgs boson.
For now, the reality is that the mercury is still rising and the climate is still changing. The global average temperature is now at least 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels; El Niño’s warming effect, which limits the oceans’ ability to absorb heat from the atmosphere, pushes it within striking distance of the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement.
Any increase is expected to be temporary, but still represents a new extreme. Twenty-eight countries, including the UK and China, experienced their warmest years in 2022. It could have been worse: Those temperatures were kept in check by the cooling effects of La Niña.
This year, meanwhile, has brought record-breaking April heat to Spain, massive wildfires to Canada, and, as a result, choking skies over New York. This is the critical message: the unprecedented is becoming the norm.
https://www.ft.com/content/08cfda0c-62ca-4f4d-8677-2fa747f1a2bd
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