In what seems a sophisticated attack from a distanceOn Tuesday, the pagers of hundreds of Hezbollah members exploded almost simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria. at least nine people killed — including an 8-year-old girl — and thousands more were injured.
The Iran-backed militant group blamed Israel for the deadly blasts, which targeted an extraordinary number of people and showed signs of a long-planned operation. How the attack was carried out is largely unclear, and investigators did not immediately say how the pagers were detonated. The Israeli military has not commented.
Here’s what we know so far.
Why were pagers used in the attack?
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had previously warned members of the group not to carry mobile phones because Israel could use them to track the group’s movements. For this reason, the organization uses pagers to communicate.
A Hezbollah official told The Associated Press that the explosive devices that exploded were a new brand that the group had not used before. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press, did not name the brand or the supplier.
Nicholas Reese, an associate professor at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, explains that smartphones pose a higher risk of communications being intercepted than the simpler technology of pagers.
Such an attack would also force Hezbollah to change its communications strategies, said Reese, a former intelligence officer. He added that survivors of Tuesday’s explosions would likely “throw away not only their pagers, but their phones and leave behind their tablets or other electronic devices.”
How could sabotage cause these pagers to explode?
Although investigators have released little so far, several theories emerged Tuesday about how the attack may have been carried out. Several experts who spoke to The Associated Press suggest the explosions were most likely the result of a supply chain disruption.
It is possible that very small explosive devices were built into the pagers before they were delivered to Hezbollah, which were then detonated all simultaneously by remote control, possibly via a radio signal.
At the time of the attack, “the battery was probably half an explosive charge and half a real battery,” said Carlos Perez, director of security intelligence at TrustedSec.
A former British Army bomb disposal officer explained that an explosive device consists of five main components: a container, a battery, a trigger device, a detonator and an explosive charge.
“A pager already has three of them,” explained the former police officer, who wished to remain anonymous because he now works as a consultant for clients in the Middle East. “You just need to add the detonator and the charge.”
After surveillance camera footage appeared on social media on Tuesday purporting to show one of the pagers attached to a man’s hip exploding in a Lebanese market, two munitions experts also said the explosion appeared to have been caused by a tiny explosive device.
“If you look at the video, the size of the detonation is comparable to that of a mere electrical detonator or a detonation containing an extremely small, highly explosive charge,” said Sean Moorhouse, a former British army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert.
This suggests the involvement of a state actor, Moorhouse said, adding that the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad was the most obvious suspect with the means to carry out such an attack.
NR Jenzen-Jones, a military weapons expert and director of Australia’s Armament Research Services, agreed that the scale and sophistication of the attack “almost certainly points to a state actor” and that Israel has been accused of conducting such operations in the past. Last year, AP reported that Iran had accused Israel of trying to Sabotage of the ballistic missile program through faulty foreign parts that could explodeto damage or destroy the weapons before they could be used.
How long did this operation take?
Planning an attack of this magnitude would take a long time. The exact details are still unknown, but experts who spoke to AP estimated the time span would be between a few months and two years.
The sophistication of the attack suggests that whoever is behind it has been gathering intelligence for a long time, Reese explained. An attack of this caliber requires building the relationships necessary to gain physical access to the pagers before they are sold; developing the technology that would be embedded in the devices; and obtaining sources who can confirm that victims were carrying the pagers.
And it’s likely that the compromised pagers appeared normal to their users some time before the attack. Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels-based veteran and senior political risk analyst with over 37 years of experience in the region, said he has spoken with Hezbollah members and survivors of Tuesday’s pager attack. He said the pagers were obtained more than six months ago.
“The pagers worked perfectly for six months,” said Magnier. The explosion was apparently triggered by an error message that was sent to all devices.
Based on his conversations with Hezbollah members, Magnier also said many pagers did not go off, allowing the group to examine them. They concluded that between three and five grams of a highly explosive material was hidden or embedded in the circuits, he said.
What else could have happened?
Another possibility is that malware has been introduced into the pager’s operating system, which at some point causes the device’s batteries to overload and thus cause a fire.
According to a Hezbollah official and Lebanese security official, the pagers first heated up and then exploded in the pockets or hands of the wearers on Tuesday afternoon.
These pagers are powered by lithium-ion batteries, the Hezbollah official said, claiming the devices exploded as a result of an attack by an Israeli “security operation,” without providing further details.
When overheated, lithium-ion batteries can smoke, melt, and even catch fire. Rechargeable lithium batteries are used in consumer products from cell phones and laptops to electric cars. Lithium battery fires can reach temperatures of up to 590 °C (1,100 °F).
Still, Moorhouse and others pointed out that Tuesday’s images and video footage were more reminiscent of the detonation of a small explosive charge rather than an overheated battery.
“A lithium-ion battery fire is one thing, but I’ve never seen an explosion like this. It looks like a small explosive charge,” said Alex Plitsas, a weapons expert at the Atlantic Council.
Jenzen-Jones is among those pointing to the likelihood of a supply chain attack, adding that “an operation on such a large scale also raises questions about targeting” – highlighting the number of casualties and the enormous impact reported so far.
“How can the person who detonates the explosive device be sure that, for example, the target person’s child will not play with the pager if it works?” he asked.