Extremely hot days are heating up twice as fast as average summer days in northwestern Europe — ScienceDaily

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New research led by the University of Oxford has found that climate change is causing the hottest days in northwestern Europe to warm at twice the average rate of summer days. The difference in trends is most pronounced in England, Wales and northern France. Concerningly, while current climate models accurately predict the rate of warming for average days, they underestimate the rate at which the warmest days warm compared to observations.

According to lead researcher Dr Matthew Patterson, from Oxford University’s Department of Physics, the results indicate that extreme heat events, such as the UK’s record-breaking heatwave last summer, are likely to become more regular. Dr Patterson said: ‘These findings underscore the fact that the UK and neighboring countries are already experiencing the effects of climate change, and that last year’s heatwave was no fluke. Policymakers urgently need to adapt their infrastructure and health systems to cope with the impacts of higher temperatures.’

For the study, published today in geographic research chartsDr. Patterson analyzed data from the last 60 years (1960-2021) recording daily maximum temperature, provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Although the maximum temperature recorded varied between years, the general trend clearly showed that the warmest days in northwestern Europe had warmed at twice the average rate of summer days. In England and Wales, the mean summer day increased by about 0.26°C per decade, while the hottest day increased by about 0.58°C per decade. However, this faster warming of warmer days was not observed to this extent in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

The reason for this faster warming of the hottest days relative to average summer days is not yet understood. According to Dr Patterson, this may be because the hottest summer days in northwestern Europe are often related to warm air being carried north from Spain. Because Spain is warming faster than North West Europe, this means that the air carried from this region is becoming more extreme relative to ambient air in North West Europe. The hottest days of 2022, for example, were caused by a column of hot air that was brought north from Spain and the Sahara. However, more research is needed to verify this.

Dr Patterson added: “Understanding the rate of warming from the hottest days will be important if we are to improve climate model simulation of extreme events and make accurate predictions about the future intensity of such events.” If our models underestimate the increase in extreme temperatures in the coming decades, we will underestimate the impacts this will have.”

Extreme heat has significant negative impacts on many different aspects of society, including energy and transportation infrastructure, and agriculture. It also exacerbates conditions including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, putting pressure on health services.

The current UK government has been criticized by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) for not acting fast enough to adapt to the impacts of global warming. These new findings add even more urgency for policymakers to adapt vulnerable infrastructure and systems to extreme heat.