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It is a good time to be Nigel Farage. After having won a parliamentary seat in his eighth attempt, the leader of Reform UK has generated support and now leads closely in averages of opinion surveys. His party is establishing the political climate.
The new converts describe Farage as “authentic”, “with the feet on the ground” and “Relief”, a contrast with a political establishment seen as “out of contact.” Farage has capitalized the unpopularity of work and has taken advantage of impatience with politics as a whole.
It does not seem so extravagant that Donald Trump’s political soul follows and ends up. But our research suggests that you may want the comparison to end there: the Farage association with the president of the United States can prove its Achilles heel.
Since the general election of last July, the participation of votes of the reform increases nine points, winning women, not voters and deserters of work and conservatives. Its newest supporters are less masculine, less online and more moderate: united by disappointment with the status quo instead of ideological zeal.
To grow more, the Church of the Reform must be extended to those who will decide the next elections. Here the problem of Trump de Farage arises. Half of the British think that the phrase “Trump of Great Britain” describes Farage well and only 19 percent disagree. But although many reform voters approve, the electorate as a whole sees it as an accusation: 54 percent of the voters of the reform like the idea, compared to only 18 percent of the general public. Many go further: 49 percent think Farage is “in Trump’s pocket.”
The idea that Trump has broad support in the United Kingdom is a mirage. When asked how they would have voted in the US elections last year, only 28 percent of the British elected Trump about Kamala Harris. And Farage’s closeness with Trump is cited as the main reason not to vote for the reform.
Last month, speaking with the voters of Llanelli and Doncaster who had voted lists in July and now they were considering the reform, we could hear why the Trump association is a detour: they found the president of the terrifying and unpredictable United States. The British may be unhappy with the status quo, but the memories of the chaotic years of Brexit are still fresh; They go back more interruption.
These risks extend to politics. It is no longer enough for the reform to be a single problem against immigration. But adopting a Trump agenda has already left Farage’s party on the wrong side of public opinion.
According to surveys, at least half of the voters are concerned about climate change: in Nigel Farage’s itself, it is 68 percent. Great Britain is strongly in favor of renewable energies, supporting investment in renewable energy for six to one. Even the voters of the reform are twice as probabilities to support that they oppose this, partly driven by concerns about energy security.
The reform runs the risk of reading the public badly, confusing anxiety about the cost of zero net goals as direct rejection. Some care if the energy transition will be fair, but climate skepticism is rare. A renewable energy tax, proposed by Reforma Vice President Richard Tice, is deeply unpopular.
Another area where Farage can run the lack of the electorate is Ukraine. Most British, including seven in 10 reform voters, see the defense of Ukraine as important. The bricks thrown to the leader of Ukraine are very disagree with the public: only 13 percent of the public consider Volodymyr Zelenskyy a dictatorA word that Trump has conveniently forgotten to use, but everyone else remembers. When asked last weekend who were responsible for the collapse of the Oval office, the British public blames Trump and JD Vance for Zelenskyy for a margin of five to one.
Farage’s challenge is now to become impressive to reassuring, to develop credibility as much as in air time. Emulate Trump or, worse, seem to be in your pocket, this test fails. Great Britain is not America. If you take seriously winning Street Downing keys, you may need to distance yourself from your friend.