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Barring a last-minute U-turn by far-right leader Marine Le Pen or another opposition, a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier looks set to plunge France into the unknown as soon as Wednesday. If approved, it will be the first time a government has been overthrown in this way since Georges Pompidou’s in 1962. The EU’s second-largest economy will struggle to form a viable administration and pass an emergency budget by the end of the year. , the reputation of his political class was further affected. It is difficult to think of a worse moment: a month after the implosion of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany and weeks before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The potential chaos underscores the madness of the snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron in July that produced a fractured and fractious parliament. His advisors continue to justify the decision by saying that, without it, France It was headed for a showdown over a cost-cutting budget needed to reduce a projected ballooning deficit of more than 6 percent this year. That confrontation It has happened anyway.
For now, despite barnierDespite last week’s warnings of a “major storm” in the markets, this is a political crisis, not a financial one. Although French borrowing costs have hit a 12-year high versus Germany’s, there are few signs of contagion in the eurozone. However, the risk to French bonds will persist if political instability continues.
The imbroglio reflects in part barnier’s errorsalso. The no-nonsense ministerial veteran and former EU commissioner proposed an overambitious budget aimed at reduce the deficit to 5 percent by the end of 2025, even more than Brussels demanded. Perhaps he has underestimated the complexity of navigating a parliament transformed since his last political activity in France. It is now composed of radical left and right blocs and a squeezed center.
Even the government’s own supporters have been mired in political infighting, with presidential ambitions for 2027 in mind. But Barnier refused to negotiate with Le Pen’s National Assembly until it was too late and then had to offer costly concessions, which proved insufficient.
His calculation It seemed that Le Pen would finally back down from the possibility of overthrowing the government, after years of trying to “normalize” her party’s image as a responsible actor. If he follows through with his apparent decision to become a disruptor again and side with a left-wing bloc he loathes in a no-confidence vote, it will be a considerable gamble. It could still backfire, especially among the more moderate voters RN needs to boost its chances of winning political power. Although Le Pen says Barnier’s budget will hurt the least well-off, extending the 2024 budget and its tax bands will raise taxes on thousands of households and force thousands more to pay income taxes for the first time.
With Le Pen facing sentencing on March 31 in a corruption trial that could result in her being banned from running for president in 2027, she may have chosen to throw caution to the wind, perhaps even hoping to overthrow Macron and provoke an early presidential election. .
The president of France will surely try to stand firm in the face of demands for his resignation. If Barnier falls, Macron’s priority must be to find a new prime minister who can revamp the budget and potentially hold out until parliamentary elections can be held next July. However, it would be unlikely that they would return an assembly very different from the current one. Macron will try to present himself as a pillar of stability. But it appears increasingly buffeted by events, rather than in control of them, just when Europe most needs strong, concerted leadership in its major capitals.