What Will Happen as Cities Become Uninhabitable Due to Climate Change?
Introduction
As the world continues to grapple with the devastating effects of climate change, it is becoming apparent that cities, particularly those that trap heat, will face significant challenges in the coming years. With temperatures rising to near-record levels and future heat waves projected to be more frequent, intense, and prolonged, the question arises: at what temperature could cities become uninhabitable? According to NASA researchers, humans can only survive for up to six hours at a wet bulb temperature of 35°C, which combines air temperature and humidity. This means that cities experiencing high temperatures coupled with high humidity are especially vulnerable. NASA climate models predict that by 2050, South Asia, the Gulf, and the Red Sea could reach critical wet-bulb temperatures, while certain Midwestern states in the United States could face similar conditions within the next 50 years.
The Deadly Impact of Heat Waves
The consequences of heat waves can be catastrophic, even if they are not extreme. The 2003 European summer heat wave, for example, claimed the lives of between 35,000 and 70,000 people, despite wet bulb temperatures not exceeding 28°C. This highlights the vulnerability of regions that are unprepared for such extreme weather events. Developing countries, in particular, are at higher risk, as evidenced by the 2010 heatwave in Gujarat, which led to a 43 percent increase in excess mortality. Furthermore, heat waves have significant economic ramifications, costing the global economy an estimated $16 trillion between 1992 and 2013. Particularly alarming is the fact that low-income regions experienced damages as a percentage of GDP per capita that were over four times greater than those in high-income regions.
The Need for City Adaptation and Preparation
To mitigate the potential devastating consequences of heat waves, city leaders must take proactive measures to adapt and prepare. Studying cities that already experience higher temperatures can provide valuable insights for adaptation strategies. Researchers suggest that by 2050, Madrid’s climate may resemble that of Marrakech, while Stockholm could imitate Budapest and London could imitate Barcelona. These comparisons can guide cities in implementing policies and infrastructure improvements to cope with rising temperatures. For example, Qatar, one of the hottest countries in the world, has prohibited outdoor work between 10 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. during the summer. However, activists argue that such measures are insufficient and point to the need for more extensive air conditioning, such as the 1.1km air-conditioned jogging track in a city park.
Challenges Faced by Poorer Cities
Unfortunately, the task of adapting and preparing for rising temperatures is much more challenging for poorer cities. As temperatures continue to rise, there is a real risk that some of these cities will become uninhabitable. Waterproofing such cities is of utmost importance, as they will bear the brunt of climate change impacts. However, the financial and logistical obstacles they face make this task incredibly difficult. While wealthier regions can afford to invest in climate resilience measures, developing countries often lack the resources and infrastructure needed to adapt. This makes them more vulnerable to the consequences of extreme heat, both in terms of human lives lost and economic impact.
Economic Implications for Real Estate
The effects of climate change on cities extend beyond human lives and public health. Real estate values will also be significantly affected as temperatures become unbearable in certain regions. Global investors may need to reassess property values in hot southern cities and consider raising them in cooler northern conurbations. This shift in property values will reflect the changing climate conditions and the desirability of living in areas that are less affected by extreme heat. It is crucial for investors to stay informed about these changes and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Implications for Migration
Unbearable summer temperatures brought about by climate change will likely result in significant migration, both within countries and across national borders. As cities become uninhabitable, people will seek refuge in more livable areas. This internal and external migration can have profound social, economic, and political implications. It is essential for policymakers and governments to anticipate and plan for this population movement, ensuring that resources are properly allocated and measures are in place to support those who are displaced by climate change.
Conclusion
The threat of cities becoming uninhabitable due to climate change is a grim reality that we must face. The rising temperatures, more frequent and intense heat waves, and the resulting impact on public health, economies, and real estate should serve as urgent warnings. City leaders and policymakers must take decisive action to adapt and prepare for these changes. By studying cities that currently experience higher temperatures and making necessary adjustments to infrastructure, policies, and public health initiatives, we can mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. Additionally, international cooperation and support are crucial to ensure that vulnerable regions and poorer cities have the resources they need to face this colossal challenge. Climate change is not a distant hypothetical scenario – it is happening now, and we must act swiftly and decisively to protect our cities and the lives of future generations.
Summary
Cities around the world are facing the threat of becoming uninhabitable due to climate change. NASA researchers warn that humans can only survive for up to six hours at a wet bulb temperature of 35°C. Heat waves, even if not extreme, can have disastrous consequences, as seen in the 2003 European summer heat wave. Poorer cities are particularly vulnerable, as they lack the resources to adapt and prepare. It is crucial for city leaders to study cities with higher temperatures and implement adaptation strategies accordingly. Real estate values will also be affected, with a need to reassess property values in hotter regions. Migration is another consequence, as people will seek refuge in livable areas. Urgent action is needed to tackle this pressing issue.
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Much of the world is sweltering under near-record temperatures. Future heat waves will be more frequent, intense and prolonged. The impact will be felt particularly in cities that trap heat. At what temperature could they become uninhabitable?
humans can just survive for up to six hours at a wet bulb temperature, a measurement that combines air temperature and humidity, of 35°C, according to NASA researchers. High temperatures combined with high humidity are particularly dangerous as it is more difficult to cool off by sweating.
NASA climate models suggest that South Asia, the Gulf, and the Red Sea could reach critical wet-bulb temperatures around 2050. Some Midwestern states, such as Arkansas, Missouri, and Iowa, could reach that limit within 50 years.
Even less intense heat waves can be fatal if they hit an unprepared region. During the deadly European summer heat wave of 2003 that killed between 35,000 and 70,000 people, wet bulb temperatures did not exceed 28°C. Poor countries are also vulnerable, despite long experience of coping with heat. Excess mortality increased by 43 percent during the 2010 heatwave in Gujarat.
Heat waves cost Global economy an estimated $16 trillion in the 21 years to 2013, according to researchers at Dartmouth College. The damage, as a percentage of GDP per capita, was more than four times greater in low-income regions than in rich ones.
Global investors may need to discount property values in hot southern cities and raise them in cooler northern conurbations. Unbearable summer temperatures will contribute to northward migration both within countries and across national borders.
City leaders can prepare by studying places used to higher temperatures. It is likely that the climate of Madrid in 2050 will resemble the current climate of Marrakech, according to the Zurich scientists. Similarly, Stockholm could imitate Budapest; London could imitate Barcelona.
Cities can adapt. Qatar, one of the hottest countries in the world, is a striking example. Has outdoor work prohibited between 10 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. in the summer, activists say that’s not enough. Extensive, and environmentally damaging, air conditioning extends to a 1.1km air-conditioned jogging track in a city park.
Waterproofing the poorest cities will be more difficult. As temperatures rise, there is a real risk that some will become uninhabitable.
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