June 14, 2024
The US economy beat expectations in the first half of this year, though conditions will weaken in the second half of 2024, according to the June results of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s biannual Livingston Survey.
The forecast also lowered predictions for the unemployment rate.
The economists now believe real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2% during the first half of this year, an improvement from the previous survey six months ago when they predicted 1% growth on an annualized basis.
They expect conditions to weaken in the second half of this year, with growth expected to be at an annual rate of 1.7%; however, this is up from the December 2023 forecast of 1.2%.
Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 2% in the first half of 2025.
Unemployment rates. The forecasters see a lower unemployment rate for both this month and December than they predicted previously. The forecasters now expect a lower unemployment rate this month at 3.9%, down from the 4.2% projected in the December survey. In addition, they now forecast the unemployment rate to be 4% in December, down from 4.2% in the prior survey. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up to 4.1% in June 2025.
Consumer price index. On the year-to-year forecast for consumer price index inflation, the economists expect an annual average rate of 3.2% this year, up from 2.5% in the December forecast, and 2.5% in 2025, up from 2.2% predicted in December.
The Livingston Survey was launched in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston and is the oldest continuous survey of economists. The June survey included responses from 23 economists. It’s produced by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.