The latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, published today in The lancet, Global life expectancy is projected to increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women between 2022 and 2050.
Increases are expected to be greater in countries where life expectancy is lower, contributing to a convergence of life expectancy increases across geographies. The trend is largely driven by public health measures that have prevented and improved survival rates from cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and a variety of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases.
This study indicates that the current shift in the burden of disease towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes – and exposure to risk factors associated with NCDs – such as obesity, high blood pressure, a suboptimal diet and smoking, will have the greatest impact on the disease burden of the next generation.
As the burden of disease continues to shift from CMNN to NCD and from years of life lost (YLL) to years lived with disability (YLD), more people are expected to live longer, but with more years of poor health. Global life expectancy is projected to increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years). Healthy overall life expectancy (HALE), the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health, will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (an increase of 2.6 years).
To reach these conclusions, the study predicts mortality from specific causes; YLL; YLD; disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, or years of healthy life lost due to poor health and premature death); Life expectancy; and HALE from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories.
“In addition to an increase in overall life expectancy, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will decrease,” said Dr. Chris Murray, professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and director from the Institute of Health Metrics. and Evaluation (IHME). “This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest and lowest income regions will remain, the gaps are narrowing and the largest increases are anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa.”
Dr Murray added that the greatest opportunity to accelerate the reduction of the global burden of disease is through policy interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating metabolic and behavioral risk factors.
These findings are based on results from the GBD 2021 Risk Factor Study, also published today in The lancet. This companion study found that the total number of years lost due to poor health and premature death (measured in DALYs) attributable to metabolic risk factors has increased by 50% since 2000. Read more about the risk factors report at https://bit.ly/GBDRisks2021.
The study also presents several alternative scenarios to compare possible health outcomes if different public health interventions could eliminate exposure to several groups of key risk factors by 2050.
“We anticipate large differences in the global burden of DALYs between different alternative scenarios to see which has the most impact on our overall life expectancy data and DALY prognoses,” said Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, first author of the study who directs the GBD Collaborating Unit at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. “Globally, the predicted effects are stronger for the ‘Improved behavioral and metabolic risks’ scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in disease burden (number of DALYs) in 2050 compared to the ‘Reference’ scenario. (most likely)”.
The authors also ran two more scenarios: one focused on safer environments and another on better childhood nutrition and vaccination.
“Although the greatest effects on the global burden of DALYs were observed in the ‘Improved metabolic and behavioral risk’ scenario, we also predicted reductions in the disease burden from the ‘Safer environment’ and ‘Improved childhood nutrition and vaccination’ scenarios. beyond our baseline forecast,” said Amanda E. Smith, Deputy Director of Forecasting at IHME. “This demonstrates the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the potential to accelerate progress through 2050.”
“We have an immense opportunity ahead of us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these growing metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors such as high blood sugar levels, body mass index high and high blood pressure,” Dr. Murray continued.