Global research reveals countries where record heatwaves are likely to do the most damage – ScienceDaily

Research led by the University of Bristol, published today in nature communicationsshows that unprecedented heat extremes combined with socioeconomic vulnerability put certain regions, such as Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America, at greater risk.

Countries that have not yet experienced the most intense heatwaves are often especially susceptible, as adaptation measures are often only introduced after the event. A high probability of record temperatures, growing populations and limited provision of health care and energy increase the risks.

Beijing and Central Europe are also on the hotspot list, as if unprecedented heat waves were to hit these densely populated regions, millions of people would be negatively affected.

In light of the findings, the researchers call on policymakers in hotspot regions to consider relevant action plans to reduce the risk of death and damage associated with weather extremes.

Lead author, climate scientist Dr Vikki Thompson from Bristol Cabot University’s Institute for the Environment, said: “As heatwaves occur more frequently, we need to be better prepared. We identified regions that may have been lucky “So far, some of these regions have rapidly growing populations, some are developing nations, some are already very hot. We need to ask if heat action plans for these areas are enough.”

The researchers used extreme value statistics, a method for estimating return periods of rare events, and large data sets from climate models and observations to identify regions globally where temperature records are most likely to be broken sooner and communities, consequently, in greater danger of experiencing extreme heat.

The researchers also cautioned that statistically implausible extremes, when current records are broken by margins that seemed impossible until they occurred, could occur anywhere. These unlikely events were found to have occurred in nearly a third (31%) of the tested regions where observations were considered sufficiently reliable between 1959 and 2021, such as the 2021 western North American heat wave.

Co-author Dann Mitchell, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Bristol Cabot University’s Institute for the Environment, said: “Being prepared saves lives. We’ve seen some of the most unexpected heat waves around the world causing dozens of related deaths. with the heat.” of thousands. In this study, we show that such record-breaking events could occur anywhere. Governments around the world must be prepared.”

Human-induced climate change is causing an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves, which have the potential to cause thousands of additional deaths around the world.

Improving our understanding of where society may be unprepared for climate extremes can help prioritize mitigation in the most vulnerable regions. In recognition of the dangerous consequences of climate change, evidenced by the work of its climate experts, in 2019 the University of Bristol became the first UK university to declare a climate emergency.