Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 growth to slow in 2025 after two years of huge returns, it said in an analyst note published Tuesday. However, according to the bank’s forecast, there are still signs of growth.
The good-but-not-good forecast is based on Goldman’s belief that the macroeconomic situation is promising but that the election of President-elect Donald Trump increases the risk of market shocks.
“In our baseline macroeconomic outlook, the economy and earnings continue to grow and bond yields remain at current levels. But going into 2025, event risk remains high, including from the potential threat of a blanket tariff and the potential risk of even higher bond yields,” wrote David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist.
Kostin’s outlook assumes Trump will impose tariffs on cars from other countries and bring in “select imports from China.” Trump’s signature economic policy during the election campaign was a series of blanket tariffs on all imports. Economists expect the tariffs to be largely inflationary as the increased costs are passed on to consumers. On Tuesday Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey told CNBC that wide-ranging tariffs could increase costs for retailers and thus prices for their customers.
Many of these negative impacts will be mitigated by Goldman’s expected overall rosy economic picture with falling inflation, an accommodative Federal Reserve and accelerating M&A activity, which could lead to higher returns for investors in acquired companies.
This continues to carry the S&P 500 throughout the year Great 7the mega-cap tech stocks that make one overwhelming majority of gains across the entire index. However, even their influence will decrease in 2025 compared to the last two years.
“The Magnificent 7 stocks combined will outperform the S&P 493 in 2025, but by about 7 percentage points, the narrowest margin in seven years,” Kostin wrote in the note.
In 2023, the Magnificent 7 outperformed the S&P 500 by 63 percentage points. According to Goldman, these seven stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 by 22 points this year. Despite their eye-popping returns, the fact that they so often outperform the broader market has left a certain class of investors fearful of this. didn’t exactly cause consternation Degree of market concentration Masks deeper risks on the market. For Goldman, however, the cohort remains the engine that will drive investors returns, even in an average year like 2025.
“The most consequential decision a stock investor has had to make in the last two years has been how much of his portfolio to allocate to the seven largest stocks in the index,” Kostin wrote.
Overall, investors shouldn’t worry too much; The bank continues to forecast solid returns for the index. The S&P 500 will reach 6,500 by the end of 2025, up 11% from current levels, the forecast said. If investors include dividend payments, this means a return of 12%.
While the return is still good, 11% pales in comparison to the last two years’ performance. In 2023, the S&P 500 rebounded strongly, ending the year up 24%. It’s also up 24% so far this year. This came after investors began the year on a more pessimistic note, expecting only a 2% gain, one said February survey by Reuters. The growth path for the S&P 500 assumes real GDP growth of 2.5%, leading to 5% revenue growth across the index. Goldman also expects inflation to moderate to 2.4% by the end of 2025.
Despite the fact that investors can expect some gains in 2025, Goldman admits that their forecast for next year would only be a median annual return. “The projected 11% gain would be in the 46th percentile of the historical distribution of 12-month S&P 500 returns since 1980,” Kostin said.
Goldman’s latest forecast is based on a particularly pessimistic assessment from October that predicted a nominal return of 3% over the next 10 years. This also comes after the U.S. electorate elected the president-elect who will direct its economy for the next four years. (Throughout the note, Kostin and his team reference Trump’s famous autobiography The art of the deal with sayings like “Think Big” and “Maximize your Options.”)
As Goldman prepares for Trump’s first year in office, it is warning investors not to miss out on Magnificent 7 growth, even in a market expecting middling returns.
“Portfolio managers who embraced the ‘Magnificent 7’ have been rewarded; many who did not suffer,” Kostin said.