Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis routs rivals in parliamentary elections

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Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis routed his main rivals in Sunday’s parliamentary election, unexpectedly boosting his center-right party’s vote share but falling just short of an outright majority.

With half of the votes counted, the ruling New Democracy party secured more than 40%, taking a lead of around 20 points over the radical left Syriza party of its closest rival, Alexis Tsipras.

Although the result far tops polls as the vote nears, Mitsotakis is still expected to call a second election this summer as his party fell short of the 45% share required to secure a majority in Greece’s 300-seat parliament.

No ruling party in Greece has increased its vote share in an election for more than 40 years. “Without a shadow of a doubt, this is the best electoral performance by an incumbent government since Greece’s transition to democracy,” said Dimitris Papadimitriou, professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

“Greece needs a government that believes in reform, and that can’t happen with a weak government,” Mitsotakis said on Sunday evening, adding that he would opt for a runoff election to seek a majority. “New Democracy has the approval of the citizens to govern independently and strongly,” he added.

Mitsotakis has repeatedly said he wants to avoid a coalition and will hold out for a majority government. This could be achieved by using a new electoral law, introduced by his government, which grants the party with the most votes in the first election up to 50 additional seats in a second round.

The election was a potentially career-threatening blow to Tsipras, a former prime minister widely associated with his high stakes over Greece’s euro membership.

Rather than profiting from the cost-of-living debate that dominated the campaign, Syriza’s vote share dropped significantly, from 31.53% to just over 20%.

According to the Greek constitution, if no outright winner emerges on election day, the party with the most votes will receive a three-day mandate to form a government through a coalition. In case of failure, the parties having obtained the second and third highest votes have the same possibility.

Mitsotakis could, in theory, try to build a coalition between New Democracy and Pasok, the center-left party that took around 11%. But party insiders say the prospect of such an alliance is dim.

Papadimitriou argues that Pasok leaders themselves will want to push for a second election as they “can now smell the blood and will seek to overtake Syriza”.

Greek voters focused on the high cost of living, with inflation weighing heavily on family budgets and putting many households at risk of poverty.

But, after years of bailouts and austerity measures in the wake of the debt crisis, the Greek economy has achieved one of the strongest recoveries in the eurozone from the Covid-19 pandemic and is on point of achieve investment grade again.

“The country’s economic outlook looks solid, and investors will be reassured by a new term for Mitsotakis at the helm, as Greece’s short- and medium-term economic projections will continue to improve,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of the European practice of Eurasia Group.

Rahman said the “open question” about Mitsotakis remained his commitment to the rule of law. The prime minister was embroiled in a spyware scandal in which the security services, overseen by Mitsotakis’ chief of staff and nephew, spied on politicians and journalists.

The government has also been accused of illegally pushing back refugees at its borders and of presiding over the decline of media pluralism. A fatal train crash that killed 57 people highlighted the dire state of some public services and infrastructure.