Inflation and NHS waiting lists threaten Rishi Sunak’s five-pledge strategy

Good morning. Interest rates are rising, the Bank of England has revised its inflation forecast and NHS waiting lists are at an all time high. It’s the boring but important political story: though Rishi Sunak is an undeniable asset to the Conservative Party, despite all he has turned chaos into order, disarray into competence, and personal scandal into endearing appeal, the government faces a number of overlapping crises.

Some more thoughts on all of this below.

The snag of the five pledges

Rishi Sunak’s re-election strategy is obvious: point to his five commitments, say he’s kept them, and then point to a new set of post-election commitments. He will say that he can be trusted to keep his promises because he has already responded to “the people’s priorities”. And he will look to contrast that with Keir Starmer, who has had to duck and shove his way as he has sought to almost completely change Labor since the Corbyn years.

These five promises, in case you forgot:

1. Halve inflation this year

2. Growing the economy, creating better paying jobs and opportunities nationwide

3. Reduce the national debt

4. Reduce NHS waiting lists

5. Stop the boats

This strategy is excellent, on paper. But in practice, it comes up against the not insignificant problem that none of the commitments are in very good condition. More than 3,000 people have arrived in the UK by small boat since March 7. As for inflation, well, Chris Giles has the details on that:

The central bank now expects inflation to rise from the current rate of 10.1% to 5.1% in the fourth quarter of the year, instead of its previous forecast of 3.9%. Any further deterioration in the inflation outlook would deprive British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of his promise to halve inflation by the end of the year.

The Bank of England’s forecasts have consistently underestimated inflation persistence since the end of the lockdown era, and it seems like a safe bet to me that this will continue.

And the latest figures from the NHS are equally grim: Waiting times in England have hit an all-time high. Sarah Neville has the storywhile the institute for government has the alarming picture.

Part of the problem is that once your healthcare system is in crisis, things tend to get worse before they get better. There is a huge demand in the UK for medical services and a shortage of doctors, nurses and just about anything you want to name.

Taken together, Sunak is unlikely to be able to say he has delivered on his five promises. Whatever one thinks of Sunak’s abilities, Starmer’s abilities, the experience and talent of both parties, what matters most in British politics is the series of overlapping crises in public services, economic hardship facing the UK and the pressure on households. None of these seem likely to have abated significantly in time for the next election.

Now try this

I will see Chineke! Orchestra at the Southbank Center tonightt. Much of it is new music and Samuel Coleridge-Taylor. I can’t wait to be there. You can stream Coleridge-Taylor’s 4 Novelletten for string orchestra wherever you are.

Whatever you do, have a wonderful weekend.

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