Inside Politics: No good options left for Rishi Sunak

Good morning. I promised a series of more detailed thoughts on the local elections once all the results are known, and so that is the subject of today’s post. Accordingly, you are all spared my grumbling about the Coronation Police Metropolitan Policeat least for today.

That said, I’m sure the topic will come up sooner rather than later. You can entertain me by asking questions about other topics for the newsletter in the comments below, or encourage me in the same way.

The Conservative Enigma

Robert Shrimley wrote the final take on what the results suggest about the next election: we are heading for a change of government, but it is not entirely clear whether that government will be Labor alone or Labor in alliance with one or more other parties.

If the last 18 months of this parliament go according to usual trends, then we are heading for an election that looks a lot like 2010, but with the roles reversed. In 2010, the Conservatives had clearly outstripped Labor in terms of votes and seats, but failed to win enough seats to secure a majority.

What are the reasons to think that the trajectory could be broken? On the conservative side, it is difficult to see a plausible one. Ultimately, the biggest problem for Rishi Sunak is that many of the public policy challenges he faces cannot be resolved by the time of the next election. Sensible measures, such as increase the power of pharmacists, can relieve some pressure, but not immediately. And the big picture on wages and prosperity is that either we are about to enter a period of wage growth that would be one of the best the UK has ever seen, or the government in place will struggle politically.

On the Labor side, the reason to think this might surprise on the upside is that these local elections have seen a huge amount of tactical voting between Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens, and that will continue in the next election. I know what shoes I’d rather be in.

And as Robert notes, these results are so damaging to the narrative that Sunak’s allies have tried to paint, of a rising party with a good chance of winning the next election, that it increases the pressure on the Premier. interior minister of his party. , not for a change of leader but a change of direction:

Despite all the noise from the dwindling and slightly ridiculous band of Johnson loyalists, there is no serious prospect of challenge to Sunak’s leadership. But the demands for policy change he had managed to stifle will resume. The most obvious problem will be the demand for faster action to reduce taxes.

Iain Duncan Smith has sharply criticized Sunak’s Chinese policy, while the Prime Minister faces calls to make house building easier from some backbench MPs, like Simon Clarke, and to make it harder for others, like Theresa Villiers. There are calls to cut taxes and there are calls to increase spending, sometimes from the same MPs.

On China, Sunak’s problem is much less acute: in the end Duncan Smith is the most warmongering of the Sinosceptics in the conservative party and for the moment there is no immediate danger there. In the long run, Sunak faces the challenge of being close enough to the European mainstream on China policy in a party that aligns itself with the United States on the issue.

In the short term, the difficulty is everything else. Part of the problem is that all Sunak critics are right, as I said on our podcast this week. Clarke is correct in saying that the areas that moved closer to the Conservative Party were the ones that built the most houses. Security of tenure is still among the biggest predictors of a Conservative vote.

But people like Villiers are right to say: if you build more housing in the south of England, the first to buy it will be the people in the town centers who will mostly take their politics with them. A big part of the Conservative Party’s problem in the south is that the UK has done a better job of building and upgrading transport links than it has been building houses. Crossrail is increasing the distance people can live from London while working in the capital. There is the electrification of some railways which increases the commutable area of ​​many other Labor towns. And if you build more in Conservative areas, the first buyers will be Labor voters who move, who will vote either Liberal Democrats or Labour.

And it is also true to say that some members of the Conservative coalition feel overtaxed and angry and some of them feel they need more public money and are therefore angry. Whatever choice Sunak makes here is going to upset someone.

Shameless self-promotion

My column in today’s newspaper is about the cast of Cleopatra and what it reveals about the global politics of race and ethnicity around the world.

Now try this

I saw How to blow up a pipeline, a tense thriller inspired by the non-fiction book of the same name, in theaters last night. It’s really very good: not as good as The Cairo Conspiracymy runaway pick for best thriller of the year as it is, but really, really good.

If you can grab a projection while it’s still being projected this week, you should. Otherwise we have a excellent interview with the director of the film here.

Top stories today

• blood money | The NHS Affected Persons Compensation Bill tainted blood scandal could reach £10billion in another blow to the UK’s strained public finances.

• Message from the creators | British manufacturers have called on ministers to stop “flip-flopping” and urgently develop an industrial strategywarning that the lack of a long-term plan is holding back growth and harming the UK’s competitiveness.

• Transportation issues | Rail travelers face more disruption this week as two transport unions launch a new wave of strikes in a long-running dispute with rail operators and the government.

• Sewer odors | Privatized UK water and sewerage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540m the previous year, FT analysis shows, despite rising utility bills households and a wave of public criticism of sewage outlets.

• Moderate or die | Recent history demonstrates the need for Sunak curators to find moderation in time for the legislative electionswrites Philip Stephens.