Dominic Joyce had applied for more than 100 jobs by the time he reached the final round for a maternity cover HR position this summer. After two online interviews, he attended an assessment day that included meetings with senior bosses at the tech company where he hoped to work.
So when Joyce received a short rejection email, he was extremely disappointed. He seemed no closer to finding a job than when he was made redundant in March. Worse, the company provided no constructive feedback. Half the 156 jobs he has applied for gave no response at all.
“There’s been times when it’s a Friday and I’ve had three rejections in one day,” he says. To make ends meet, Joyce has worked as an Amazon driver and sold a family heirloom. “I’m not in a great place. You put on a smiley face [but] the process is rotten.”
Because Joyce’s background is in recruitment — a canary-in-the-coal-mine sector for hiring slowdowns — he knows he is not an outlier. After a surge in vacancies during the pandemic, hiring is stalling across professional sectors from finance to tech to administration, leaving white-collar workers facing much stiffer competition than some have become used to in recent years.
Employers inundated
At the end of 2021, there were 60 per cent more vacancies in the US and UK than before the pandemic. Now openings are only 12 per cent above pre-pandemic levels in the US and 8 per cent below in the UK. Candidates report applying for hundreds of jobs and receiving only rejections, if any response at all. “Everyone I’ve spoken to, young and old, it seems worse than the financial crash,” says Joyce.
This might come as a surprise to some job hunters. Since the pandemic prompted large numbers of people to leave the workforce, labour markets have been relatively tight, according to recruiter Indeed. It estimates there were 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy in the UK in August, above the low point of one in 2022 but down from the average 2.9 of the past two decades. Unemployment also remains relatively low in Europe and the US but a slowdown in hiring in recent months, combined with a mismatch between the skills employers want and those workers have, mean many candidates are struggling to find the right role.
Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at networking site LinkedIn, says interest rate increases over the past two years have curbed employers’ ability to invest in hiring. Fewer new openings mean fewer people leaving jobs, reducing opportunities further.
“The labour market has become more congested, for each job there are more people applying. Employers can be more picky,” Kantenga adds. LinkedIn measures “jobseeker intensity” — the number of applications made per person on its site — and says this has increased by more than 8 per cent in France and Germany and 4 per cent in the US in the past year. “That’s resulting in people having to work harder to get a job.”
At first glance, this is good news for employers. Data from consultancy Recruitonomics shows UK employers could expect to spend £12 to elicit one job application in late 2023 — on costs such as recruitment companies or advertising — compared with more than £20 in 2022. But the picture is more complex.
“We’ve seen a really rapid shift in employer sentiment. Two years ago, their biggest complaint was volume, or lack of,” Andrew Flowers, director at Recruitonomics, says. Now many say they are overwhelmed with applications — but still struggling to find quality candidates among the deluge.
Artificial intelligence is part of the problem. A survey by content creation platform Canva found about 45 per cent of global job hunters were using AI to build or improve their CVs. “AI is being used to tailor the CV — it’s making life harder [for recruiters] because there’s not only an increased volume but it’s very good,” Kantenga says. This makes it tougher for recruiters to filter the best candidates.
Spray and pray
Bonnie Dilber, lead recruiter at HR firm Zapier, says employers are receiving so many applications that considering all of them is impossible. “We have no reason to look at anyone who’s not top notch — other applications aren’t even being considered.”
This risks a vicious cycle. Candidates met with silence fire off more applications, sacrificing quality for volume in what industry professionals term a “spray and pray” approach.
At the same time, recruitment departments are being cut as companies scale back hiring, resulting in fewer people handling more applications and a less personalised process. “Basics in recruitment are getting lost,” because recruiters do not have time,” says Jane Curran, head of talent acquisition at real estate company JLL. “We all want to be doing a better job.”
Not all sectors are facing a glut of candidates; some lower-paid industries and those requiring specialised skills are still struggling to attract applicants. Applications per person on LinkedIn rank highest in tech, media, professional and financial services, and lowest in health.
“There’s dichotomy between what I call standing-up jobs and sitting-down jobs,” says Flowers. In areas such as trades or hospitality, workers are finding it easier to get hired. In university-educated, white-collar jobs, a hiring boom post-Covid “got reversed very fast” as interest rates were raised. “Demand is totally evaporating.”
At senior levels, variations are not as marked because jobs are less frequently advertised. However, competition is still fierce and success requires networking. “We advertise zero per cent of the jobs we work on,” Lewis Maleh, founder of executive recruiter Bentley Lewis, says. “There’s fewer jobs . . . so you have to access the hidden job market.”
Interview fatigue
Marketing professional Sarah, who requested anonymity as she is in the final stages of applying for a position, has been at the sharp end of the hiring market. She left her previous role after suffering from burnout last year and her employer assured her she would have a job, or freelance work, on her return. However, when she got back in touch in early spring, the offer had evaporated, as did other openings.
“It’s been terrible,” she says. She has applied for about 100 jobs but has only received a reply from about half, and most of those were automated. She has reached interview stage on five occasions. “It is so demoralising. It’s the subconscious headspace it takes up . . . the guilt associated with not working,” she says. “When you get a no, it’s crushing.”
Jose Hervas, who works in sport marketing, initially had no problem getting responses but says he is “tired of interviews”. “I’ve done more than 30 since February, and my confidence levels are going lower and lower.”
Hervas says that even after the final stage of an interview process, which can involve several online screenings and days of preparation, he often receives no feedback. He is still waiting to hear about a final-stage interview he attended in June. “My experience has been really bad in terms of hearing back from companies and understanding why it wasn’t me . . . It really hurts.”
Data from European recruiter The Stepstone Group shows the average time to hire increased slightly to 4.9 weeks in the second quarter of 2024, with businesses of more than 1,000 employees taking longer. Pam Lindsay-Dunn, people and culture director at recruiter Hays’ European business, says the unsettled economic climate means employers and candidates are more cautious: recruiters now talk of a “big stay” following the “great resignation”, with quit rates lower than in 2021. “Everyone seems to be waiting for something,” Lindsay-Dunn says. “It’s the most unusual market I’ve ever worked in.”
Frustrated jobseekers should not despair, however. Kantenga says the situation should improve as monetary policy normalises, putting “a bit more momentum into the labour market”.
And this week, Joyce finally landed a role. In a post on LinkedIn announcing his new position as a senior talent manager, he says: “I can’t wait to get started.”