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Oversized election posters of President Nicolas Maduro dominate Venezuela’s capital. There is hardly an opposition banner in sight, but opinion polls predict a crushing defeat for the authoritarian leader.
The contrast between the government’s iron grip on power and the opposition’s conviction that it can finally win after 25 years has made Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election particularly tense and unpredictable.
Unlike in other recent elections, the main opposition groups have united around a single candidate, 74-year-old retired diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, hoping that a deep yearning for change will lead to a victory so sweeping that the government will have no choice but to accept defeat.
Despite attempts to reinvent himself as a smiling social media personality, Maduro remains deeply unpopular after presiding over years of economic crisis, political repression and the emigration of around a quarter of the population.
Most opinion polls indicate the opposition would crush Maduro by a margin of 20 to 30 points in a clean vote, but few believe he would easily concede such a result when so much is at stake.
The United States has sanctioned the Venezuelan president and his inner circle, accusing them of drug trafficking. The International Criminal Court is considering a case for crimes against humanity. Senior Venezuelan officials who have benefited from rampant corruption fear retaliation.
“Maduro has no good options right now,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela expert at the Atlantic Council. “His least bad option might be to ban the opposition and go ahead with a sham election, but that will likely provoke an international backlash.”
Maduro stoked tensions this week by talking of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if the opposition wins, while predicting “irreversible results” that would give him victory in elections due to take place a week later on Sunday.
General Domingo Hernández Lárez, operational commander of the Armed Forces, published a video on X showing his troops training with bursts of batons and tear gas.
Gonzalez, a moderate with no previous political career, has tried to calm the political waters by promising to negotiate an orderly transition and not seek revenge if he wins.
But many in the ruling party remain fearful of Maria Corina Machado, the charismatic opposition leader who chose Gonzalez as her replacement after she was barred from running. Machado has moderated her stance but has been a harsh critic of the government in the past. She has been constantly harassed by security forces and 21 members of her campaign team have been arrested.
Machado has warned that only a “monumental fraud” could prevent the opposition from winning.
International powers hope to influence the outcome. The United States eased some sanctions against Venezuela last year as an incentive to encourage elections, and has signaled through off-the-record talks with Caracas that “everything is on the table” if Maduro and his inner circle agree to step down after losing an election, according to people familiar with the talks.
Russia, China and Iran – Maduro’s main allies – will hope that the status quo will be maintained.
The continued belligerence of Venezuelan top officials, who regularly denounce the opposition as dangerous fascists, makes the pre-election period especially tense.
There is no guarantee that the elections will take place as planned. A pretext could be found to postpone them. The government could ban Gonzalez from participating before the vote. Or it could manipulate the results.
“Assuming the polls are accurate, Maduro has one of two options,” said Mark Feierstein, who served as President Obama’s top adviser on Latin America. “Either he accepts defeat … or he launches an offensive, but that’s not as easy as people think. If turnout is as high as expected, the results are clear and people are in the streets celebrating, that changes the dynamic.”
Electoral fraud carries other risks. Many in the government want sanctions lifted and Venezuela’s international isolation ended, which would be unlikely if the result is sham. No one knows whether poorly paid foot soldiers will obey orders to crush protests or whether members of Maduro’s inner circle might break ranks.
Few observers believe a disputed election would lead to a smooth recount and the National Electoral Council (CNE) announcing an opposition victory.
“The best-case scenario is that the government pauses the vote count in the event of an opposition victory and begins to negotiate,” said a Venezuelan with intimate knowledge of the electoral system.
But the source added: “This is turning into a train wreck… Neither side seems willing to acknowledge a victory by the other.”
michael.stott@ft.com