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The indictment of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant for war crimes is a disaster for Israel. It is also a big problem for the Western alliance.
Israel is gaining full bipartisan support in the United States as it tries to fight International Criminal Court charges against its prime minister and former defense minister. But the majority of EU governments, as well as Great BritainAustralia and Canada are likely to respect the accusation. Even if reluctantly, they will have to arrest Netanyahu if he sets foot on their soil.
Even in normal times, this division between the United States and its main allies would be very difficult. But these are far from normal times. Donald Trump, who will be president on January 20, has already committed to taking actions that deeply threaten the interests of America’s friends.
Trump has promised to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent, which will hit European and Asian exporters. Its commitment to the NATO alliance is in doubt. And his plan for a peace deal with Russia could endanger Europe’s security.
Another bitter transatlantic confrontation – this time over Israel – is the last thing the Western alliance needs. But that’s what’s coming.
Some Israeli ministers are already happily anticipating that the Trump administration will allow Israel to formally annex parts of the occupied West Bank and Gaza. This would be considered dangerous and illegal by the EU.
The Trump administration will almost certainly push for sanctions against the prosecutor and staff of the ICC. There is also talk in Republican circles of destroying the court, perhaps by threatening to sanction the countries that fund it. Japan, Germany, France and Britain are the ICC’s four largest donors.
Neither Israel nor the US You seem interested in addressing the real situation in detail. charges in the indictment, which includes accusations that Israel has killed civilians and used “starvation as a method of warfare.” Instead, the Trumpist right embraces Netanyahu’s claim that the ICC is driven by anti-Semitism. The fact that the court has also indicted Vladimir Putin, Hamas and numerous African leaders will be set aside as the court and its European sponsors are branded as enemies of the Jews.
The reality is that most European governments have done a lot to support Israel since the Hamas atrocities of October 7, 2023. Britain and France recently participated in military actions to protect Israel against Iranian missiles.
Some EU countries, such as Germany, are so committed to Israel that they could break with the ICC despite accepting the court’s legitimacy. But the instinct of most European nations will be to combine support for Israel’s right to defend itself with support for an international legal system that enforces the rules of war.
The issues at stake go beyond the immediate issue of possible war crimes in Gaza. Most medium-sized democracies in Europe and Asia understand the dangers of returning to a world in which great powers and their clients act with impunity.
Some violations of international law, such as challenging a World Trade Organization ruling, don’t sound too scary. But Russia has already shown that defying international law can also mean seizing territory, kidnap children and massacring civilians.
The legitimacy of the international campaign to deter Russian aggression is based on international law, with the ICC case against Putin as its centerpiece. If the United States, which welcomed the indictment of Putin, now turns against the ICC (and the international legal order it represents), then the chances of persuading a skeptical world to apply sanctions against Russia, Iran or North Korea will be diminished. severely diminished.
The emerging clash between the United States and its allies over Israel is part of a much broader argument about the future of the world order. John Ikenberry of Princeton University argues that Trump is turning the United States into a revisionist state that is challenging all elements of the liberal international order he once built: free trade, openness to migration, multilateralism, security alliances, solidarity between democratic nations and protection of human rights.
The ICC is a relatively recent addition to the international legal system. It began operating only in 2002. The United States, Russia, China, India and Israel are not among the 124 countries that have accepted the court’s jurisdiction. But deliberately destroying it will send a dangerous message, at a time when authoritarian powers are increasingly confident in waging war and committing human rights abuses.
As the most powerful country in the world, the United States may feel that appealing to international law and institutions is something only weak Europeans should do. But even the powerful United States needs global allies and rules.
The coalitions the United States is building against Russia and China are built around an appeal to international law. The United States has used legal justifications to strengthen its response against China in the South China Sea and Russia in Ukraine. Even the Russians and Chinese always try to claim that they act according to global rules. They know that openly violating international law makes a country lose allies and exposes it to sanctions.
International law can be frustrating and its operation can seem inconsistent. But a world without law will be a scary and dangerous place.