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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have made provocation his new strategy. As thousands of Hezbollah members went about their daily business on Tuesday, the pagers they carried explodedPanic spread as at least 12 people, including two children, were killed and nearly 3,000 wounded. Hezbollah blamed Israel for Tuesday’s attack and vowed to retaliate. More explosions occurred in Lebanon on Wednesday when a group of Hezbollah fighter jets walkie-talkies Israel has not commented on the attacks, but its defence minister said on Wednesday that they were “the beginning of a new phase in the war”.
The attacks caused a humiliating blow The airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias targeted the heart of their communications network. They underlined the prowess of Israel’s intelligence services and its ability to strike its enemy anywhere, seemingly at will. But they have once again put the Middle East on edge, raising the risk of a full-blown regional war.
Netanyahu seems increasingly determined to provoke Hezbollah Otherwise, it is dangerously toying with the idea that Israel can continue to escalate the offensive and hope that the Lebanese paramilitary force will show restraint or back down. Whatever the case, the attacks were reckless acts that fanned the flames of the conflict.
Israel and Hezbollah have been locked in a deadly war of attrition since the Iran-backed movement launched rockets at the Jewish state a day after Hamas’s horrific attack on Oct. 7. The war has so far been largely confined to the border region between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah has said it does not want a full-blown conflict but continues to fire at Israel, apparently in support of Hamas.
Some 60,000 Israelis have been forced to flee their homes in the north of the country due to constant Hezbollah fire. More than 40 have been killed. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes have killed nearly 600 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters, and displaced some 100,000.
Hours before the pager attack, Israel expanded the goals of its nearly year-long operation. campaign against Hamas in Gaza to include Securing the northern front to allow the return of displaced Israelis, raising fears that it could escalate its conflict with Hezbollah, amid speculation that Netanyahu might consider a ground offensive in Lebanon, which would be a serious mistake.
There is no chance that the displaced will return in the near future if the conflict continues or escalates. Hezbollah, one of the most heavily armed non-state actors in the world, is a far more formidable foe than Hamas. Israel’s previous interventions in Lebanon have a checkered history, and an all-out war in the current climate could involve Iran and other militants it backs.
In the later stages of his career, Netanyahu has shown a propensity for playing to Israel’s security interests, from the years he spent dividing and ruling the Palestinians while thwarting any progress toward a Palestinian state, to his fateful underestimation of the threat posed by Hamas.
There is a diplomatic way out of the conflict with Hezbollah: a US-proposed deal that would see Hezbollah withdraw from the border, a resolution of territorial disputes and Israel halting flights over Lebanon. But that depends on Israel and Hamas agreeing to a deal to secure the release of the hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza. Yet Netanyahu is reluctant to agree to it, fearful of alienating far-right allies who are vital to his political survival. The US silence on the attack – and its failure to increase pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire – only emboldens him.
Making deals with arch-enemies is always a bitter pill to swallow, even more so for Israelis after the horrors of October 7. But a situation of permanent conflict would be ruinous for Israel and the region. What is worrying is that it increasingly looks like the path Netanyahu is choosing.