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The stories that matter about money and politics in the race for the White House
The best that can be said about Joe Biden’s shaky debate performance is that it took place in June. If they were to pressure him to resign as a candidate, the Democratic convention would still be two months away. For Biden loyalists, who have always moved quickly to quell any hint of dissent over his candidacy, Thursday night was the moment of truth. For more than a year, private conversations in Washington have been dominated by the aging president. But the public omerta on that topic he remained in general terms. That cognitive dissonance has now collapsed. The story now is about itself Biden he can be persuaded to resign.
The choice is yours alone. Having crushed the Democratic nomination, Biden would be within his rights to ignore pleas for him to resign. Potential alternative candidates, such as Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, and Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, are unlikely to speak. The risk of being branded a traitor and ruining his presidential chances would be too great. There is no committee of party elders who can convince Biden to vacate the crown. He is the leader of the party. A tap on the shoulder of the young Hillary Clinton, 76, or the much younger Barack Obama, 62, would risk backfiring.
Those who know Biden best say the only people who could sway him are his family, starting with first lady Jill Biden. Biden is a stubborn man. Most presidents are. Until Thursday night, he believed he was the only Democrat who could beat him. donald trumpNow it appears that he is headed for defeat in November. As Biden continued his often inaudible and mumbling performance, prediction markets reacted in real time. At the end of the debate, a political betting market, PredictIt, gave Trump a 61 percent chance of winning, after starting the debate at 53 percent. This put a number on what almost everyone was thinking.
The risk for Democrats now is twofold. The first is for Biden to simply refuse to concede. In fact, that remains the most likely outcome. As the debate was going on, Biden’s advisers said he was suffering from a bad cold, which explained his hoarseness. By now, everyone had forgotten Trump’s prediction that Biden would take a “shot in the butt,” or even cocaine, to improve his performance. If Biden believes he simply had a bad night, he could eat up the precious time Democrats have to choose a replacement. The worst thing he could do is hold on to office for a few more weeks and then resign. He would have to make the announcement in the next few days.
The second risk is that Biden decides to step aside in time and the Democratic Party falls into a civil war. Another reason Biden has been so reluctant to consider resigning is the unpopularity of Kamala Harris, the vice president. But as the first female and non-white vice president, it would be provocative for Biden to endorse anyone else. If he does not name Harris as her heir apparent, the party could polarize along ideological lines. Anyone competing with Harris for the nomination, especially a white man, would risk being portrayed as an enemy of progress. A bitter battle for the Democratic nomination that culminated in a divisive convention in Chicago offers too many historical echoes to be comforting. The last time Democrats held their convention in that Midwestern city was in 1968. It became a circular firing squad.
These risks were already known. But the advantages are suddenly clearer. Many democracies can hold general elections and change their government in the time between now and the Chicago convention. Indeed, Britain looks set to do so next week, having declared a snap election at the end of May. The fact that no American party has held an open convention in recent times should not be an obstacle. All about The 2024 US presidential race It is unprecedented. This includes the advanced age of both candidates and the fact that one of them, Trump, has repudiated the results of the last elections.
Bill Clinton once said that Americans prefer “strong and wrong” to “weak and right.” On Thursday, those two options were on the debate stage. Every Democrat, including Biden, tirelessly repeats that democracy is on the ballot in November. They argue that the stakes for America are existential. The question now is whether they will have the ruthlessness to act on them.
There is no shortage of Democratic talent, and a raucous contest would not necessarily be bad for the party. Democrats would be showcasing the lively democratic process they say is in jeopardy. The question Biden and the first lady must ask themselves now is who Trump would fear more: Biden or a younger opponent who can launch the rebuttals he couldn’t on Thursday? For a growing number of Democrats, that question answers itself.