An In-depth Analysis of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict and Its Strategic Implications for the West
Introduction
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, which has been ongoing since 1988, is reaching a critical point with Azerbaijan’s recent military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh. This enclave, previously controlled by neighboring Armenia, is now on the verge of being reclaimed by Azerbaijan. The outcome of the conflict holds significant strategic implications not only for the region but also for the West. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the conflict, exploring its historical context, the current military and diplomatic landscape, and the potential future relationships between the West, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
The Conflict and Its Origins
The roots of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict can be traced back to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Both countries, formerly Soviet republics, laid claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic Armenian region within Azerbaijan’s borders. The clash of national identities, historical grievances, and territorial disputes fueled tensions and eventually led to a full-blown armed conflict.
Key Points:
- The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan began in 1988 over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
- The strategic implications of the conflict extend beyond the region, affecting the interests of the West.
- Azerbaijan’s recent military offensive has put it on the verge of regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
- Armenia’s defeat reveals its dependence on Russian security guarantees and Western sympathy.
The West’s Mediation and Soft Power Exhausted
The West’s involvement in mediating the conflict and exerting its soft power has been limited in its effectiveness. The recent military offensive by Azerbaijan has highlighted the inadequacy of words and meetings in stopping the unacceptable results on the ground. The attention of the Western countries has now shifted to humanitarian concerns, such as the displacement of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. However, it is crucial to consider the long-term strategic implications of the conflict.
The end of the war could have transformative effects on the region and forge new relationships. Armenia, feeling disappointed with Russia’s supposed protection, has sought military exercises with American forces and even considered joining the International Criminal Court. The West, in turn, can play a crucial role in assisting Yerevan in providing social assistance to those displaced from Azerbaijan. Moreover, as Azerbaijan diversifies its energy ties away from Russia, the West’s relationship with the country becomes more crucial than ever.
Unique Insight:
The West’s mediation efforts and soft power have been insufficient to halt the conflict. The strategic implications now require deeper analysis and understanding.
Strategic Implications for the West
The end of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict presents opportunities for the West to strengthen its ties with Azerbaijan, especially in the context of the war in Ukraine. Azerbaijan’s unique geographical position, bordering both Russia and Iran, raises security concerns for the West. As Russia and Iran grow closer, Azerbaijan’s relationship with Turkey, a NATO member, becomes increasingly significant. Azerbaijan’s adherence to NATO standards in terms of military training presents the potential for deeper cooperation between the country and the West.
Strategic Possibilities:
- Azerbaijan’s energy ties with the West could play a crucial role in reducing its dependence on Russian supplies.
- Security collaborations with Azerbaijan can help address the growing concerns regarding Russia’s and Iran’s relations.
- The West should strategically seize the opportunity to build a deeper and more sustained relationship with Azerbaijan.
The Importance of Azerbaijan’s Choices
The course of Azerbaijan’s actions will significantly impact the nature and depth of the West’s engagement with the country. Azerbaijan should strive for magnanimity in victory, ensuring the protection and safety of the Armenians who choose to stay in the country. Quickly signing a peace treaty and renouncing any further aim at Armenia’s sovereignty will be crucial steps in shaping the future relationship between Azerbaijan and the West.
Exploring Economic Opportunities and Promoting Reconciliation
Beyond the immediate concerns of the conflict, there lies an opportunity for both Armenia and Azerbaijan to explore economic cooperation and reconciliation. Drawing inspiration from the reconciliation efforts between France and Germany, which resolved their historical conflicts through integration, Armenia and Azerbaijan could take steps towards long-term stability and constructive relations. The EU can play a crucial role in facilitating this process and supporting the economic development of both countries.
Practical Example:
The integration of France and Germany after three wars offers a practical example for Armenia and Azerbaijan to follow in resolving their conflicts.
Conclusion
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has been a protracted and complex issue that has extensive implications for the West. Azerbaijan’s recent military offensive has shifted the balance of power in the region and raised crucial questions about the West’s role and strategic opportunities. By analyzing historical and current dynamics, exploring potential future relationships, and emphasizing the importance of reconciliation and economic cooperation, it becomes evident that the West should take a proactive approach in shaping the post-conflict landscape.
Summary:
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, which began in 1988, is approaching a pivotal moment as Azerbaijan regains control of Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict poses strategic implications for the West, highlighting the limitations of mediation and soft power. Azerbaijan’s victory exposes Armenia’s shortcomings and dependence on Russian security guarantees and Western sympathy. The West’s attention now lies in addressing humanitarian concerns and considering the longer-term strategic implications. Armenia’s disappointment with Russia presents an opportunity for the West to deepen its engagement. Azerbaijan’s ties to Turkey and its energy prospects offer potential for a deeper relationship. Azerbaijan’s choices will determine the nature of engagement with the West. Economic opportunities and reconciliation should be explored to build a region defined by future interests rather than past anxieties.
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The writer is a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former UK ambassador to Belarus.
After its latest military offensive two weeks ago, Azerbaijan is on the verge of regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the enclave within its borders previously controlled by neighboring Armenia. This will end a conflict that began in 1988, which concerns both combatants and is a key driver of international engagement in the Caucasus. The outcome will have strategic implications for the West.
For Azerbaijan, this is a complete victory achieved thanks to the cruel and harsh methods of military force and economic blockade, as well as Turkey’s training and equipment. For Armenia, it is a devastating defeat that reveals its inability to prepare diplomatically or militarily for the rise of an adversary three times its size, and its reliance on an adversarial mix Russian security guarantees, which have not been honored, and Western sympathy. , which turned out to be purely rhetorical.
For the West, the end of the war shows that the results it describes as “unacceptable” cannot be stopped with words and meetings alone. The limits of its mediation and its soft power have been painfully exposed. Western attention is now focused on humanitarian concerns: the flight of more than 100,000 Armenians from the enclave and the fate of the few who remain there. But it should also think urgently about the longer-term strategic implications. The end of the war could transform the region and forge new relationships within it.
Armenia, disappointed by Russia, its supposed protector, has just participated in military exercises with American forces. Much to Moscow’s anger, she is also considering joining the International Criminal Court, which this year indicted Vladimir Putin for war crimes. The West is expected to help Yerevan provide social assistance to those arriving from Azerbaijan – which will add up to 4% to Armenia’s population and strain resources.
But the key question is how relations between the West and Azerbaijan will evolve. The West’s energy ties with the oil and gas-rich country are more important than ever as it shifts away from Russian supplies. There are now new security possibilities, especially in light of the war in Ukraine. Azerbaijan is the only country bordering both Russia and Iran, two Western adversaries whose ever-closer relations are causing growing concern. Azerbaijan’s ties to Turkey, a NATO member which also provides military support to Ukraine, mean that Azerbaijan receives military training that meets the alliance’s standards. All of this offers the potential for a deeper relationship, if the West has the strategic imagination to seize it.
But a lot depends on Azerbaijan’s choices. These will determine whether Western engagement is limited and transactional or whether it could be deeper and more sustained. Baku would do well to remember Churchill’s maxim: “In victory, magnanimity.” Armenians who choose to stay in Azerbaijan must be protected and allowed to live in safety. Baku should be ready to quickly sign a peace treaty. It must renounce any aim aimed at the sovereignty of Armenia.
Beyond that, all parties should explore the economic opportunities denied to them by the conflict. France and Germany fought three wars in 70 years, but managed to begin reconciliation through integration. Armenia and Azerbaijan, who have fought three wars in half the time, could learn from this – and the EU could help.
The goal should be to build a region defined by the interests of the future rather than the anxieties of the past. Secure, stable and constructive relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and the West would not only be good in themselves, but also unwelcome for Russia, which thrives on instability. The West should be ready to support this. Azerbaijan’s choices will be crucial. After decades of mutual enmity, generosity toward defeated Armenia could yield disproportionate rewards. The next stop will be Baku.
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