Labor’s bet on building a green belt

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Good morning. Keir Starmer has made his biggest and boldest political call as a leader in pledging the Labor Party to build more homes, even in the politically popular Green Belt.

Elsewhere, automaker Stellantis has warned that unless the UK’s Brexit deal is renegotiated, the country’s electric vehicle industry is under threat. What connects the two is that they both say something about what a Labor government would be like. Some reflections on both in today’s note.

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It is Keir Starmer’s announcement that a Labor government would build more on the green belt an act of genius or suicidal folly?

On the one hand, the green belt is an anti-growth policy: it limits the growth of UK cities and makes it more difficult to build houses. Had the 1945-51 Labor government not established the green belt policy (although the concept was first introduced in London in 1938), Reading and Slough would be referred to as London boroughs and Wolverhampton and Solihull as part of Birmingham.

On the other hand, the image that the word ‘green belt’ conveys in the minds of most voters is that of idyllic green fields and beautiful countryside. Some Conservative MPs believe Starmer’s announcement will enable them to fight a highly localized campaign against a Labor Party that wants to build on green spaces and keep their seats.

Who is right? Well, the poll on this is pretty grim reading for the Labor Party, with voters of all stripes opposing the policy. This is by You gov:

There is a major “but” here, though. After all, what matters in politics is not alone What you think, how much do you care. Here’s the latest Ipsos Mori Emissions Index:

The wager here is obvious: that a broad, radical housing policy gains more than it loses, because most voters don’t care, and those who do would agree with you. That The Times uses its lead column today to declare that Labor is the only party seriously committed to tackling the housing crisis will make Starmer’s inner circle believe they’re on the right track.

More importantly, Labor desperately needs some sort of rhetorical shield against the idea that its policies mean more taxes and/or more debt, and its big, bold housing policy gives it exactly that. Labor can say that thanks to their pledge to build more homes and infrastructure, they will recover the UK’s growth rate from its slow post-financial crisis level.

Charging problems

Car manufacturer Stellantis is warning that its Ellesmere Port factory will close unless the UK renegotiates the terms of its deal with the EU. His calling was taken over by German car manufacturers lobbying to maintain duty-free access to the UK.

As Helen Thomas explains in her column, Brexit is just one of the handicaps the UK faces in developing its electric vehicle industry. However, nowadays, Stellantis’ Brexit hardships are an interesting way to address the larger question of how the UK relates to the EU post-Brexit.

Peter Foster (premium members can sign up for his Brexit newsletter here) has a nice turn of phrase: Brexit is a divorce where you have to live on the same street. And just as parents need to find ways to circumnavigate parental nights out, graduations and weddings, I’m convinced that over time the UK will end up having a closer relationship with the EU simply because it’s the easiest way to manage relationships EU-UK.

But I think the interesting question to ask is this: how would the story of Stellantis play out under a Labor government?

In that situation, there would be no one in Downing Street or anyone of note who would want to argue that Brexit is going well. One of the reasons I think the next Labor government will end up getting closer to the EU than that party thinks is that, when crises like this emerge, there will be no one who matters to argue that the status quo is working. Both geography and necessity mean that the UK will eventually move closer to the EU over time, and that process will only accelerate.

Now try this

I’m going to see Igor Stravinsky The Firebird this evening. It’s a really nice piece of music and I’m really looking forward to seeing what the conductor will do with it. Listen to it on YouTube or anywhere you stream your music!

Join Isabel Berwick each week as she answers readers’ workplace dilemmas in her new Office Therapy column, as part of the relaunched Working It newsletter. No problem is too thorny or too non-PC for her to tackle, and those who write are kept anonymous. Sign up here to receive the newsletter every Wednesday.

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