There are many ways to describe what is happening to the Earth’s climate: Global warming. Climate change. Climate crisis. global rarity. They all try to capture in different ways the phenomena caused by our world’s failing weather systems. However, despite the options of a thesaurus entry, it remains a notoriously difficult concept to identify.
However, MIT researchers might finally have an answer. Instead of predicting Category 5 hurricanes or days of record heat, they have developed a tool that allows people to see how many “days outdoors” Your region could experience between now and 2100 if the growth of carbon emissions continues unchecked.
The results can be alarming or comforting, depending on where you live.
For people in California either France either Germany, things don’t look so bad. The weather won’t be as hospitable in the summers, but will become a little more clement in the spring and fall, adding anywhere from a few days to nearly a month of outdoor weather compared to historical records. He United Kingdom They will be even better, gaining 40 days outdoors by the end of the century.
However, not everyone will win. Some temperate places like NY, Massachusetts, Porcelainand Japan you will lose a week or more of days outdoors. Elsewhere, the picture looks even more dire. Illinois They will lose more than a month of outdoor days by the 2080s, as summers become unbearably hot. Texas He will lose a month and a half for the same reason.
However, it is the countries with some of the most vulnerable populations that will suffer the most (as scientists have been warning). Nigeria Summers will be even hotter and longer, eliminating nearly two months of days spent outdoors. India He will lose almost two and a half months.
It does not have to be this way. Even if the world fails to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 (but still does so by 2070), the situation will improve dramatically. Both Nigeria and India would only lose one month of outdoor days, with regions further north retaining some of their extra outdoor days.
Risk assessment
The MIT tool is an identifiable application of a field of study known as climate scenario analysis, a branch of strategic planning that seeks to understand how climate change will affect various regions and demographics. It’s not a new field, but as advances in computing power have fostered more sophisticated climate models, it has become more applicable than before.
Several startups are using this relatively new predictive capability to help shape an uncertain future.
Many startups in the sector are focused on addressing that uncertainty for investors, lenders and insurers. Jupiter Intelligence, Cervestand A worry all focus on those markets, providing clients with dashboards and data sources that they can tailor to regions or even assets of interest. The startups also determine the risk of floods, wildfires and droughts, and will deliver reports detailing the risk to assets and supply chains. They can also generate regulatory disclosures, highlighting relevant climate risks.
Investors and insurers are concerned enough about how climate change will affect assets and supply chains that these startups have attracted some real money. Jupiter Intelligence has raised $97 million, according to PitchBook, while Cervest has raised $43 million and One Concern has raised $152 million.
While major financial institutions are an obvious customer base for weather forecasting companies, other open-air markets also need solutions.
ClimateAI is targeting agriculture, including agribusiness, lenders and food and beverage companies, all of which have seen droughts, floods and storms decimate crops. As a result, water risk assessment is a key feature of ClimateAI forecasts, although it also provides other weather and climate-related data. The startup has raised $37 million so far, according to PitchBook.
Sensible weather is working in markets that are a little closer to home for most of us. Provides insurance for people participating in outdoor events and activities, from live concerts to camping and golf. It works with campgrounds, golf courses, live event operators and more, allowing them to provide customers with the option to insure their departure against inclement weather. It’s an approach that has earned the startup $22 million in funding, according to PitchBook.
As more companies and consumers become aware of how climate change is affecting their lives, their demand for certainty will create a wealth of new markets that will offer these startups and their peers ample opportunities for expansion. Climate scenario analysis, once a niche limited to academic laboratories and insurance companies, appears to be on the verge of entering the mainstream.