Unlock the editor’s summary for free
Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer directs the US center and Europe at the Brookings institution
Remember the strangely threatening Russian video From European cities destined for ice that are taken to a false song called “Winter Will Be Long”? He went viral in September 2022, approximately six months after the large -scale invasion of Russia of Ukraine and for the Germans, it remains a visceral and inductor reminder of the worst energy crisis of his country since World War II.
That year, Germany finally, after years of sanctions, threats from the United States, as well as urgent warnings of their neighbors in Eastern Europe, captured the enormity of their error by becoming much of Russian energy. Now it was racing undo it. As it was clear that Russia was about to attack Ukraine in February 2022, Berlin refused to certify the new Twin Nord Stream 2 pipe that doubled Nord Stream 1’s capacity.
But Russia hit first. On September 2, the gas giant controlled by the Kremlin Gazprom stop all supplies to Germany. Twenty -four days later, three of the four Nord current pipes were exploited in an act of sabotage. With a national heartbreaking effort and huge subsidies for industry and consumers, Germany managed to almost completely replace gas deliveries of Russian pipes with liquefied natural gas from the United States, Norway and Qatar.
Today, almost all Russian pipes to Europe are closed. The continent is now the Main client For us GNG; Shortly after Donald Trump’s re -election last year, the president of the EU Ursula von der Leyen commission saying That Europe should demolish Russian gas imports by replacing them with even more EE. UU.
Recent reports of the efforts led by the United States to open the last Nord Stream 2 pipe not damaged and possibly repair another, therefore, are surprising, to say the least. Like this newspaper pointed Out, “it would require the United States to raise the sanctions against Russia, Russia, agree to resume sales that cut during the war and Germany to allow gas to flow to any potential buyer in Europe.” Indeed.
But the last weeks have shown how quickly the unthinkable can become thinkable again. Everything is more reminiscent of legendary line of the American television program mad Men: “You will be surprised how much it never happened.”
A Swiss Court has moved miraculously to stay Banking procedures against the parent company of the pipe until the beginning of May 2025. The White House and the Kremlin are clearly anxious to leave the war behind, if necessary, on the heads of Ukraine and Europe. A two -hour phone call between Trump and Vladimir Putin on Tuesday did nothing to stop the fight. However, Washington’s reading mentioned “Huge economic offers”; Moscow statement (while reiterating all the hard line demands of Putin) he spoke of “possible ties of mutual interest in economics and energy.” Gazprom, who was publishing last year record lossesYou have seen the prices of your actions Mark up From the first intimations of an American-ruso thaw.
What leaves Germany, where the CDU/CSU on the right center and the central-left SPD are currently negotiating to form a government. The Minister of Green Economy that comes out, Robert Habeck warned This week: “The Social Democrats and the Conservative Party in Germany built the German Energy Dependency of Russia, and did it voluntarily.”
Some industry leaders and conservative Negotiators I have already received the possibility that the Russian gas taps are on. CDU legislator Thomas Bareiß recently aware In social networks: “When peace returns and weapons between Russia and Ukraine fall in silence, relationships will be normalized, the sanctions will rise and, of course, gas can begin to flow again.” He added: “As before, Nord Stream is a private project and will be decided by private businesses.”
To call this argument, naive tense all credulity. It is an open secret that the conservatives of Germany so far have not been able to know with their own “ancient and deep Moscow connection. So that the next German government accepts when opening the Nord Stream 2 pipeline under US property would be catastrophic. It would alienate its European partners, refinance the Kremlin war machine and sell Ukraine.
Germany would be trapped again, but this time, between a Russia determined to extinguish Ukrainian sovereignty and take the rest of the continent to its sphere of influence, and a Trump administration insisted on pursuing a condominium of great authoritarian powers. It would be a betrayal of Europe.