The Complex Relationship between the US and China
Introduction
US-China relations have historically been fraught with tension and conflict. Recent diplomatic efforts to reestablish connections have given hope for a more stable relationship, but there are concerns that the current approach may not be enough to prevent further escalation. This article explores the complexities of the US-China relationship and proposes a new architecture for engagement that could lead to more effective conflict resolution.
The Problem with the Current Approach
The current approach to US-China relations is seen as a repeat of previous failed attempts at compromise. Regular summits and dialogues in the past have not been successful in preventing trade wars, technology wars, and the early signs of a new cold war. Both sides seem eager to return to this failed approach, but it may not be enough to address the deep-rooted issues and prevent further conflict.
One of the challenges lies in the shifting priorities of both nations. While the focus has traditionally been on the economy and trade, there has been a noticeable shift towards concerns about defense and security. This change in emphasis has led to unsubstantiated presumptions of antagonistic behavior, particularly in the realm of technology. Both the US and China have made assumptions about each other’s intentions without concrete evidence, leading to a precarious state of affairs with the potential for further escalation.
A New Approach: The Secretariat of the United States and China
To address the shortcomings of the current approach, there is a need for a new architecture of Sino-US engagement. One proposed solution is the establishment of a Secretariat of the United States and China, which would serve as a permanent organization located in a neutral jurisdiction. This Secretariat would be composed of equal parts US and Chinese professionals and would have a broad mandate for policy development, problem-solving, and conflict resolution.
The focus of the Secretariat would be on adopting a forward-thinking, full-time approach to relationship management and dispute detection. This shift from personalized diplomacy to institutionalized collaboration would provide a more resilient framework for addressing the complex issues in the US-China relationship. By bringing together professionals from both countries in a neutral setting, it would be possible to foster a more objective and productive dialogue.
Benefits of the Secretariat
The proposed Secretariat of the United States and China offers numerous benefits for the US-China relationship:
- Impartiality: By being located in a neutral jurisdiction and composed of professionals from both countries, the Secretariat can provide an impartial platform for dialogue and conflict resolution.
- Policy Development: The Secretariat could play a key role in policy development, taking into account the interests and concerns of both countries and working towards mutually beneficial solutions.
- Problem Solving: With a dedicated focus on problem-solving, the Secretariat can proactively address issues before they escalate, reducing the risk of further conflicts.
- Conflict Resolution: By serving as a central hub for conflict resolution, the Secretariat can facilitate more effective and timely resolutions, ensuring a more stable US-China relationship.
Exploring Deeper into the US-China Relationship
As we delve deeper into the complexities of the US-China relationship, it becomes clear that there are numerous factors at play:
1. Economic Interdependence
The economic interdependence between the US and China is a crucial aspect of their relationship. Both countries heavily rely on each other for trade, investment, and technological collaboration. Disruptions to this economic relationship can have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only the two countries but also the global economy as a whole.
2. Competition for Technological Supremacy
The race for technological supremacy has become a major point of contention between the US and China. Both countries are investing heavily in research and development, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence and 5G technology. The fear of falling behind in this technological race has led to heightened tensions and suspicions.
3. Ideological Differences
The US and China have fundamental ideological differences that shape their respective approaches to governance, human rights, and international relations. These differences often lead to clashes on the global stage, with each country seeking to promote its own values and interests.
4. Security Concerns
Security concerns play a significant role in the US-China relationship. Both countries view each other’s actions through the lens of national security, often making assumptions and accusations without concrete evidence. This heightened sense of insecurity can fuel mistrust and further escalate tensions.
The Importance of a New Approach
Given the complex nature of the US-China relationship, a new approach is necessary to prevent further escalation and promote more effective conflict resolution. The proposed Secretariat of the United States and China offers a promising solution by providing a neutral platform for dialogue and problem-solving.
By shifting the focus from personalized diplomacy to institutionalized collaboration, it becomes possible to address the deep-rooted issues and work towards mutually beneficial solutions. The Secretariat would serve as a catalyst for positive change, fostering a more stable and productive relationship between the US and China.
Conclusion
The US-China relationship is a complex and multifaceted one, characterized by tensions, conflicts, and competing interests. The current approach to diplomacy has proven to be ineffective in addressing the deep-rooted issues and preventing further escalation. A new architecture of Sino-US engagement, such as the proposed Secretariat of the United States and China, offers a promising solution by providing a neutral platform for dialogue and conflict resolution.
As the world becomes more interconnected and global challenges require cooperative solutions, it is crucial for the US and China to find common ground and work towards a more stable and productive relationship. By embracing a new approach, both countries can pave the way for a better future and ensure the well-being of their citizens and the wider global community.
Summary
The US-China relationship is at a critical juncture, with tensions and conflicts threatening to escalate. The current approach to diplomacy has not been effective in addressing the deep-rooted issues and preventing further conflicts. A new architecture of Sino-US engagement, such as the proposed Secretariat of the United States and China, offers a promising solution by providing a neutral platform for dialogue and conflict resolution. By shifting the focus from personalized diplomacy to institutionalized collaboration, it becomes possible to foster a more stable and productive relationship between the US and China. A new approach is crucial to prevent further escalation and promote more effective conflict resolution.
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The writer, a senior fellow at Yale Law School and former president of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of “Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives.”
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent trip to Beijing was a carbon copy of Antony Blinken’s earlier diplomatic mission to the policymaker: lots of talk, but no meaningful resolution of the conflict. The same can be expected from climate envoy John Kerry’s trip to China. Both sides are aiming low, more intent on reestablishing connections than rethinking a deeply troubled US-China relationship.
The problem is not with the messengers. Diplomats are just following orders, in line with a leader-to-leader pledge made by Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at the November 2022 G20 meeting in Bali to put “a floor” in the relationship. Yes, a floor is an upgrade from a downward spiral, but it runs the very real risk of setting the stage for a new phase of escalating conflict.
The current efforts are a repeat of a tired old formula of compromise between the United States and China. This featured regular summits between 2006 and 2017, notably the twice-yearly Strategic Economic Dialogues of the George W Bush administration, followed by the broader annual Obama-era Economic and Strategic Dialogues. These were great and glorious exercises in event planning, but they failed to prevent trade war, technology war, and the early skirmishes of a new cold war.
Now it seems that both Yellen and Blinken would like nothing more than to return to this failed approach. The same goes for China. Li Qiang, the new Chinese premier, borrowed an elliptical page from one of his predecessors, Wen Jiabao, and spoke wistfully after meeting Yellen about seeing “rainbows” after a round of “wind and rain.”
This deeply troubled relationship needs much more than a “floor” to prevent another round of escalating conflict. That is the least Biden and Xi expect of each other as responsible stewards of a fragile world. But without reinforcement, it could prove surprisingly unstable.
The great balloon fiasco in February is an example of how quickly things can spiral out of control at the slightest glitch. This precarious state of affairs is an inevitable consequence of a major shift in US-China relationship management priorities: a long-standing emphasis on the economy and trade has now been replaced by concerns about defense and security.
Unlike economics and commerce, where relationship conflicts are assessed through the lens of hard data, security concerns are judged more on the basis of unsubstantiated presumptions of antagonistic behavior. China’s dual use of advanced technologies, blurring the distinction between commercial and military purposes, is a case in point. The US assumes that China will weaponize AI just as it assumes that Huawei represents a backdoor threat to 5G infrastructure or that TikTok will use proprietary data collected from young US users for nefarious purposes.
China operates under the same paranoid mindset, assuming that Washington’s trade and technology sanctions are aimed at “containment, encirclement and total suppression,” to quote Xi at this year’s Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. With both nations operating on assumptions without evidence, the dangers of further escalation, especially in the face of imminent risks to investment in technology and exports of strategic materials, cannot be ignored.
Old-style engagement is ill-equipped to deal with these risks. In the end, that’s based on leader-to-leader chemistry, which is always vulnerable to the tenuous interplay between domestic politics and fragile human egos’ need to save face. The current conflict between the United States and China has outlived that approach.
For this reason, I am in favor of creating a Secretariat of the United States and China as the centerpiece of a new architecture of Sino-US engagement: a permanent organization, made up of equal parts US and Chinese professionals, located in a neutral jurisdiction with a broad mandate for policy development, problem solving, and conflict resolution . His focus would be on a forward-thinking, full-time approach to relationship management and dispute detection. A secretariat would shift the framework of relationships from the personalization of endless diplomacy to a more resilient institutionalization of collaborative problem solving.
Stuck in the past, diplomats now celebrate the thaw after a big freeze. While the escalation is in a tenuous hold for the time being, it is urgent that both superpowers seize the moment and push for an entirely new approach to conflict resolution, before it is too late.
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