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Progressives are winning the immigration debate — but it doesn’t look like it


Do you remember the rise of the right? First Brexit, then Trump, then a wave of right-wing populism swept through Europe. There were dozens of news articles about the “rising tide of anti-immigrant sentiment.”

Except it turns out that out west, 2016 was a high point for such views. This is true for almost all Western countries, but the most dramatic changes have taken place in the United States, Canada and, in particular, Great Britain, where the proportion of people who say there should be strict limits – even an outright ban – on immigration has more than halved from 66% on the eve of the EU referendum to 31% last year.

Chart showing that attitudes towards diversity and immigration have softened rapidly across much of the west since 2016, particularly in the UK

These trends could be a direct reaction to the rise of right-wing populism, according to a new article by political scientists James Dennison and Alexander Kustov. They theorize that the unexpected success of the anti-immigration policy may have shocked previously complacent moderates into expressing support for diversity.

We see similar changes in the attitude of the general public towards members of other ethnic groups and faiths. Only 3% of Americans and 2% of Britons say they would not want someone of a different race as a neighbour, with only Sweden scoring lower in the developed world. Discomfort with people of other faiths drops to just 3 and 1% in the US and UK respectively.

Chart showing that British and American attitudes towards immigrants and members of other races and religions rank among the most positive in the world

The data paints a picture of countries that are increasingly diverse — and increasingly relaxed about it. However, we often have the impression that things are going backwards. Mentions of terms suggesting ethnic bias have exploded in Western media over the past six to seven years, according to new research by David Rozadoassociate professor at the New Zealand Institute of Skills and Technology.

In the West, concerns about racial injustice are rising the most and fastest in the UK, US and Canada – three countries where prejudice is believed to have receded the most and fastest. It’s a progressive paradox: the part of society whose values ​​clearly prevail remains deeply uneasy.

So why is this progress so rarely and reluctantly recognized?

Graph showing that there has been a sharp increase in media attention to racism in the US, UK and Canada in recent years

One likely factor is the link between diversity and the resulting solidarity with different racial groups. A 2020 study demonstrated that the more ethnic diversity a person encounters, the more positively they perceive people of different races. Racial stereotypes and hostility develop when a person only encounters people from few or no other ethnic groups.

Considering that Britain, the United States and Canada are among the most diverse countries in the West and have been for some time, the concomitant increase in racial solidarity could be the reason why they have experienced the biggest increases in concerns about racial injustice.

But as right-wing politicians use inflammatory racial language when diversity increases, overall levels of tolerance and isolated incidents of intolerance will often rise simultaneously.

Dennison and Kustov suggest that while populist phenomena such as Brexit and the election of Trump have led moderates to reaffirm their support for diversity, they have also emboldened more prejudiced people – as evidenced by spikes in hate crimes.

My analysis of World Values ​​Survey data suggests that this may be a particular problem in the United States. Although Americans as a whole rank among the most comfortable with diversity, 12% of ethnic minorities in America say they face racist behavior ‘very frequently’ in their neighborhood, the highest figure among 19 countries. studied.

Chart showing that despite high overall levels of racial tolerance in the United States, racism remains relatively common by international standards

In the UK, that figure is 5% – the lowest in Europe, but still 5% too high.

Statistics like these sum up the progressive paradox. Britain, along with other Western nations, has come a long way and is now one of the most diverse societies in the world, but greater racial cohesion brings heightened sensitivity to racial injustice. What is sometimes called the “great awakening” is actually a rational response to a positive trend.

john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch




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