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The wounding scale of the Scottish National party’s defeat has raised questions over its raison d’être — independence — and fuelled Scottish Labour’s momentum ahead of Holyrood elections in 2026.
In its worst general election result since 2010, the SNP lost dozens of Westminster seats to Labour as the muscle memory of central belt voters returned them to the bosom of the party they abandoned a decade ago.
With one Highland seat delayed by a recount until Saturday, Scotland’s governing party had won only nine seats in the House of Commons, compared with 37 for Labour and five each for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Labour, which won just one seat in Scotland in 2019, has emphatically become Scotland’s largest Westminster party, as part of Sir Keir Starmer’s national landslide victory, fuelled by concerns about the scandal-ridden SNP’s record in government.
“The scale of the SNP’s loss has undoubtedly set back the cause of independence, at least for now,” said Chris Deerin, director of Reform Scotland, a think-tank.
“It’ll be hard if not impossible for the SNP to push Starmer for a second referendum given the Scottish electorate has just reduced it to nine MPs — where is the moral or political authority?” he added.
John Swinney, who became SNP leader and Scottish first minister just two months ago, pledged to reflect on the party’s approach to independence in the wake of the results, which he said were “very, very difficult and damaging”.
“I have to accept we failed to convince people of the urgency of independence,” he said. “Therefore, we need to take the time to consider and reflect how we deliver our commitment to independence, which is absolute.”
The first minister pledged to “sort out” the party before the Scottish parliamentary elections in 2026, arguing that the roughly 50 per cent of Scots who still believe in independence presented a “formidable expression of support”.
One SNP figure said it was impossible to sugarcoat the drubbing his party had received, but said Swinney would approach the disaster as the “ultimate gradualist” who believes in building the case for independence through competence.
Seventeen years in power had muddied the Scottish government’s vision, he added, channelling Tory strategist Lynton Crosby: “It’s time to clear the barnacles from the boat.”
Under former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, the party moved into a dominant position in Scotland in 2015, a year after Scots voted in a referendum to remain within the UK.
That so-called yellow wave dramatically ebbed away last night. The party — in power in the Scottish parliament in Holyrood for 17 years — has been tarnished by a series of scandals over its finances, while opinion polls suggested voters were disappointed with its record in areas such as healthcare, education and transport.
“Voters have made it clear that they want and expect the SNP to focus on the issues that matter to them — fixing our ailing public services and growing the economy — rather than obsessing about tearing up the UK,” said Scottish Conservative chair Craig Hoy.
The SNP will go from the third- to fourth-largest party in the House of Commons. This will hit its public profile, as its leaders had been able to use guaranteed airtime during prime minister’s questions to agitate on issues such as Brexit and the Israel-Hamas war.
The party, already facing a squeeze in donations, will also lose a proportion of its public funding after slipping down the ranking of parties at Westminster.
Swinney conceded the dramatic loss of MPs would have financial implications for the party, and that would need to be considered as part of his work to strengthen the organisation.
Labour retook seats across the populous central belt from Inverclyde, to the west of Glasgow, through the post-industrial heartlands to Edinburgh and beyond, as far east as East Lothian and Fife.
Joanna Cherry, SNP candidate for Edinburgh South West, was a high-profile casualty in Edinburgh, where Labour won four of five seats. Christine Jardine held Edinburgh West for the Lib Dems, one of five wins for the party.
The Conservatives have won three seats in Scotland. Douglas Ross lost out to the SNP in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, impeded by a strong showing for Reform UK. Ross will step down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives but remain as an MSP at Holyrood.
The turnaround in Labour’s fortunes north of the border under the leadership of Anas Sarwar has been boosted by an active campaign in Scotland, with several high-profile visits by Starmer and senior Labour figures.
“The scale of Scottish Labour’s victory surely puts it in pole position for Holyrood 2026,” said Deerin. “This doesn’t feel like voters sending a warning shot across the SNP’s bows, but rather an electorate that is starting to move away from the party.”