Russia sent so many men to war in Ukraine that the country’s crime rate plummeted soon after the invasion began. Now their return is sparking a wave of crime.
According to the Russian Supreme Court, crimes committed by soldiers that have nothing to do with the war have increased by more than 20 percent in the past year. Although the overall numbers are still low and many returning soldiers no longer commit crimes, there has been an increase in violent crimes as well as theft and drug-related offenses.
The figures do not include the crimes of tens of thousands of prisoners who were released from prison to go to war under a program launched by the late Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Those who survived six months at the front could be pardoned by President Vladimir Putin and return to Russia as free men.
In prison, “they are treated as if they were nothing,” and then it gets even worse at the front,” says the sociologist living in Kazan Iskender Yasaviev“The experience they return with is a trauma that will manifest itself for decades to come.”
Sociologists have long noted that Crime rates Numbers often rise after military conflicts end, and researchers have examined many possible causes for this, from social unrest to the trauma experienced by soldiers. Russia is unlikely to buck that trend after Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022 that sparked Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. The return of prisoners who fought for Wagner is an early sign of what could be in store as hundreds of thousands of men brutalized by the fighting return to civilian life.
While the number of minor crimes has declined, the number of murders and sexual crimes, especially against children, has not decreased in the past two years. The number of sexual assaults on minors has increased by 62 percent compared to the pre-war period, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Supreme Court data.
The return of the Wagner recruits to Russia was a shock to the inhabitants of the towns and villages, who found among them men whom they thought were serving long prison sentences. People convicted of murder and even cannibalismwere among those pardoned.
Before Prigozhin died in a plane crash in June last year after leading a failed mutiny against the Defense Ministry leadership, he claimed that 32,000 convicts he had recruited had returned to Russia from the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to the widespread public unrest with tell Reporters said in November that criminals pardoned by Putin would “atone with their blood for their crimes on the battlefield.”
Another one Law The law, which came into force in March, tacitly abolished the right to pardon after six months of service and forced conscripted criminals, like others, to remain in the military until the end of the war.
Yet they return, often through desertion. The number of crimes involving the military quadrupled in 2023 compared to 2021, now standing at 4,409, according to Supreme Court data.
One of the deserters, Artyom, said he fled after half of his stormtroopers were killed during four months in Ukraine. The 34-year-old, who declined to give his last name, joined the army to escape harsh treatment in the penal colony where he was serving a sentence for drug trafficking. No one told him the service was indefinite, he said.
The law that ended the pardons also allows the Defense Ministry to send not only convicted prisoners but also people in pre-trial detention to war. Russia Behind Bars, a prisoner rights organization, estimates that up to 175,000 former prisoners have been sent to war in total.
A post-war rise in crime could cost Russia up to 0.6 percent of its gross domestic product, says Alex Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics. In addition to the direct costs to lives and property, the state will also face higher spending on social services and security, especially the police, he says.
“From the Franco-Prussian War to the Global War on Terror, crime rates fall at the start of a war and rise sharply again afterward. Russia is unlikely to escape this pattern. The cost of post-war crime could range from 0.2% of gross domestic product if the conflict is resolved in 2024 to 0.6% of GDP if the conflict continues for five more years and some 3 million Russians are involved in combat. The total cost of a post-war rise in crime is likely to be significantly higher,” Isakov said.
To avoid a repeat of the September 2022 draft of 300,000 reservists that had led to a rise in public fears about war, the Kremlin is instead relying on generous payments to entice men to join the army. Contract soldiers are offered monthly payments of 204,000 rubles ($2,300), as well as signing bonuses that can reach up to 1 million rubles.
This contributed to a short-term decline in crime, particularly in Russia’s provinces. In areas with high recruitment rates, the decline in recorded crimes was three times higher than in regions with only moderate recruitment rates, Bloomberg Economics estimates.
“Economic crimes such as theft and robbery, which are linked to poverty, have declined because the war has caused money to flow to the poorest regions and to the poorest sections of the population,” says sociologist and crime researcher Ekaterina Khodzhaeva.
Russian courts handled nearly 62,000 fewer cases last year than in 2021, and the number of convictions fell by 2%. The number of police officers has also declined in many regions, suggesting that fewer officers were available to solve crimes as people gave up low-paying jobs for more lucrative military service.
Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in May that there was a shortage of 152,000 civil servants across Russia and that in some regions one in four positions was vacant.
This is likely to increase the challenges for authorities in curbing crime as more and more prisoners of war return to civilian life.
“Like any other veteran, they are likely suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder,” says Anna Kuleshova, a sociologist at the Social Foresight Group. “This is coupled with previous prison stints. Taken together, this can lead to difficulties in integrating into society.”