This is a public service warning for conservatives. The country does not consider a rudimentary ability to govern as a bonus for those who seek to lead it.
For the past three months, conservatives have allowed themselves to believe that under Rishi Sunak, the simple restoration of ground-level competence and political reason would be enough to turn the electoral tide that is surging against them. These elections present a timely dose of reality for those who were becoming giddy at the sheer novelty of a capable prime minister.
Few hotels would welcome TripAdvisor reviews of “Not as bad as it used to be.” Yet too many conservatives allowed themselves to believe that “not quite the shambles we were” was somehow political offer enough. A close Sunak ally even expressed concern this week about the need to guard “against complacency”. Well, good news guys, Thursday local elections you’ve covered on this.
What the results suggest is that Sunak hasn’t yet separated himself from everything that has come before. His hands may be clean on the Truss interregnum, but he was a central figure in the Johnson years. And while the Tory mood in Westminster has improved, it is clear that the country’s real concerns over issues ranging from the cost of living to the series of civil service strikes, to NHS waiting lists and illegal immigration are not decreasing. People feel poorer and less well served than before on the things that will decide the next election.
The results were expected to be bad for the Tories, even against terrible results four years ago. In fact, they were very bad. It is extremely difficult to see how, on this basis, they could form even a minority government.
The oppositions have rightly learned not to base their hopes on local election victories. There are countless caveats that need to be made about extrapolating from council competitions. But they define the music of national politics and the melody we hear this weekend is one that suggests Sir Keir Starmer is heading for Downing Street.
This is good news for Labour. What is much less clear is that he would do so at the head of a majority Labor government. The results so far point to another hung parliament, with Starmer as prime minister under an arrangement with the Liberal Democrats (and possibly others).
Another cause for concern for conservatives is that the success of the Liberal Democrats indicates an increase in an anti-Conservative tactical vote. Labor is making clear inroads in the ‘red wall’ North and Midlands regions, where it has lost ground in the last two general elections; the Lib Dems are eating away at conservative majorities in the wealthier (and more liberal) southern seats.
Many things can still change. The incumbent government would expect to win back some lost voters, those angry enough to drop out of the party mid-term, either by switching or simply staying away. Likewise, Labor is facing the more relentless focus on an opposition with a serious chance of victory.
Polls show that while Starmer has succeeded in reassuring voters, he has yet to generate significant enthusiasm. It has eliminated fear but has not yet instilled hope. These results should encourage him to go further by specifying more precisely the change he would propose, in particular on public services.
For Sunak, they present a number of challenges. Having reduced Labor’s lead in the opinion polls, he enjoyed a success story. Although Labour’s margin in this election looks less than it needs for an outright majority, the scale of the council seats lost means the story of the prime minister’s stalled decline has become a tougher sell.
Despite all the noise from the dwindling and slightly ridiculous band of Johnson loyalists, there is no serious prospect of challenge to Sunak’s leadership. But what he will find is that the demands for policy change he had managed to calm will resume. The most obvious problem will be the demand for faster action to reduce taxes.
His message, one he repeated this week in a speech to the conservative think tank Onward, is that this was always going to be a long fight and that voters would “make us sweat” until the end. This speech was also notable for Sunak’s efforts to draw a line between himself and previous conservative administrations, including one in which he was a key figure. He spoke of ending the “box set dramas” and the “comeback” of the Tories.
The Conservatives have had great success over the years in using a change in leadership to project a change in government. This is their approach again. But the results suggest Sunak still has a lot of work to do to separate himself from what came before.
While Labor is still vague on what change it is proposing, its messages that Britain is not working and people are not feeling better align with voter sentiments. Sunak needs to give people concrete reasons to believe that things are getting better. Cleaning up the mess left by previous Conservative administrations was an essential first step. But this is a prerequisite, not a path to success. After a heady few weeks, the Tories have been starkly reminded of the scale of the challenge they face.
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