Russia exported more oil in April than in any other month since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, with nearly 80% of crude shipments going to China and India, according to the International Energy Agency .
Russian oil exports rose another 50,000 bpd in April to a post-invasion high of 8.3 million bpd, far exceeding averages of 7.7 million bpd and 7.5 million barrels per day in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
The increase in shipments reflects Moscow’s success in finding new buyers for its oil since Europe halted imports and new ships to carry cargoes to those markets.
Since the West first threatened Russia Under last year’s sanctions, Moscow has partnered with a growing number of little-known trading companies and tanker owners to develop new ways to move its oil.
“Russia appears to have little trouble finding willing buyers for its crude and petroleum products,” the IEA said in a monthly oil report on Tuesday.
The result has been one of the biggest changes in cargo flows on record, with Russia diverting millions of barrels a day of oil from Europe to Asia over the past 12 months.
Despite shipping more oil, Russia’s monthly oil export revenues were 27% lower than in April 2022, according to IEA estimates, in part due to lower global energy prices.
Russian oil also traded at a discount to global benchmarks due to a G7-imposed price cap on permitted Russian exports of petroleum and refined petroleum products imposed in December and February respectively.
However, that discount has started to shrink, the IEA said, as Russia increased its access to non-Western shipments able to operate outside the price limits. Moscow’s oil export earnings in April were $15 billion, up from $13.3 billion in March, according to IEA estimates.
In total, Russia shipped 5.2 million bpd of crude oil in April, the most since May 2022, including 2.1 million bpd to China and 2 million bpd to India. Total exports of refined petroleum products were 3 million barrels per day.
“The new refining capacity is driving a continued eastward shift in projected crude runs for the remainder of the year, mirroring the strength of regional demand,” the IEA said.
Imports from Russia have helped meet growing oil demand in China, which hit an all-time high of 16 million barrels per day in March, the IEA added. “China’s demand recovery continues to beat expectations,” he said.
In response, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 to 2.2 million barrels per day, adding that China would account for nearly 60% of the increase.
The drop in global oil prices in April and early May, when global benchmark Brent crude fell nearly $16 a barrel in just two weeks, was in “stark contrast” to the tighter market expected in the second half of the year, he said.
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