Saudi Arabia’s journey from troublemaker to diplomat

As Sudan descended into war last month, Saudi Arabia sent navy ships to evacuate thousands of people from the conflict. When one of the ships returned home, a Saudi female soldier was filmed carrying a rescued baby ashore.

The images turned her into a celebrity in the kingdom, as praise for Riyadh’s rescue effort poured in from the United States and other countries. The Saudi Foreign Minister has also led efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Sudan. It was the final moment in a seemingly redemptive arc for Saudi Arabia, which in recent years had earned a reputation as a regional troublemaker.

Once a bastion of a stilted foreign policy, Saudi Arabia took a heavy-handed approach from 2015 under the leadership of the then defense minister and later Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This led to a series of aggressive moves, including a military intervention in Yemen against Houthi rebels, a regional embargo against Qatar, and the brief detention of Lebanon’s then prime minister.

But Riyadh was forced to focus on the inside after the 2018 murder of Saudi commentator Jamal Khashoggi by state agents who became Prince Mohammed persona non grata in Western capitals. An attack on oil facilities a year later blamed on Iran, which backs the Houthis in Yemen, underscored the high stakes of the authoritarian strategy.

Now the kingdom is changing course again, buoyed by a surplus of petrodollars, a rapidly growing economy and growing confidence. He has become more active on the foreign stage again, this time defusing tensions with his enemies while pursuing extravagant megaprojects at home.

The kingdom surprised many by announcing in March that it had agreed to restore diplomatic relations with Iran, its great rival. Officials then traveled to Yemen as part of a campaign to end the long war against Iran-backed rebels. After calling for the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Riyadh is pushing Arab re-engagement with the diet.

Prince Mohammed is “savoring his moment,” said Emile Hokayem, director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The economy has rebounded, major powers are engaging, he is recalibrating his foreign policy to prioritize his geoeconomic, transformational and prosperity agendas.”

A senior Saudi official linked the recent flurry of diplomatic activity to Riyadh’s ambitious development agenda. “The area has gotten worse and there are more complications around us,” the official said. “And our national success is tied to stability in the region.”

The official added that Riyadh “also has more bandwidth” as its national development plans have gained momentum.

On September 14, 2019, a turning point in Saudi Arabia’s abandonment of a more aggressive foreign policy occurred, when a swarm of missiles and drones evaded the kingdom’s US air defenses to strike oil infrastructure. vital, temporarily cutting half of its oil production.

“The value of the American security umbrella has been drained” by the attack, said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator close to the royal court. “After that, Saudi Arabia realized that while it couldn’t replace America, it could complement its ties with the United States with a strong strategic relationship with a China that has enormous influence over Iran.”

A year after the attack, Prince Mohammed has lost a staunch ally in the White House, President Donald Trump. He was replaced by Joe Biden, who came into office promising to turn the kingdom into a pariah because of Khashoggi’s murder.

Biden finally visited Saudi Arabia last year to push for more oil production, while promising that the United States would not abandon the region to Russia, China and Iran. But months later, he again threatened to reassess Washington’s relationship with Saudi Arabia after the kingdom led an OPEC+ production cut.

Tensions between Riyadh and Washington have since eased, and the United States continues to guarantee the kingdom’s security and seek its cooperation on a range of issues, most recently the conflict in Sudan, where Saudi Arabia has influence over warring military factions.

But Riyadh has placed greater emphasis on balancing its external relations, particularly with China and Russia, the kingdom’s OPEC+ partner, which hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping in an Arab summit in December.

A few months after Xi’s visit, China, the biggest buyer of Saudi oil, mediated negotiations that led to the deal with Iran.

“The Saudis have spoken openly about the fact that you’re not wondering what Chinese policy will be in three years, but you’re wondering what American policy will be,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International studies.

Despite Biden’s vow to preserve Washington’s position in the region, the perception in Gulf capitals has long been that the United States is pulling out as it shifts its focus to Asia and Russia.

“We feel a lack of commitment [from the west] in the region,” the senior Saudi official said. “It’s not so much that there is a problem[with the west]. . . nobody has the time, the bandwidth and the money to spend on solving the problems of the Middle East.

Some analysts wonder if Prince Mohammed will continue to backtrack on the robust foreign policy that characterized his first years in power, and if the new approach with Iran could work.

“For Saudi Arabia’s global and regional interlocutors, the story of the recent past, when the kingdom deployed strength and power plays, remains fresh and serves as a reminder of what could happen,” Hokayem said.

“At the end of the day, it’s unclear how strategic Riyadh’s regional approach is: can it stabilize neighboring countries without handing over the whole store to the Iranians?”

The senior Saudi official insisted that while the kingdom would be more “engaged” regionally, it would not be “activist”.

“Saudi Arabia’s great power is its political power, its economic power, its power to unite,” he said. “That’s where our best tools are and those are the ones we’ll use.”