SHOCKING! Boris Johnson shackles Trump in a desperate final move!

There is no clever plan. No secret whistle to ensure Boris Johnson’s return to power. All there is is all there ever was, a vague instinct that it’s better to walk away now, keep your options open and see how the earth is in a few months. Johnson’s entire career has been a series of such bets to delay accounts or alter his narrative. Often they paid. But the former prime minister is short of the road.

The simple facts are that after receiving a draft inquiry from the House of Commons to find out whether he had lied to Parliament about breaches of the lockdown, Johnson saw the game was over. Even a Conservative-dominated committee found him guilty. He faced a penalty serious enough to increase the likelihood of a by-election. His fellow parliamentarians weren’t going to save him, and although a recent poll suggested he might win, he didn’t believe the risk.

So he resigned and cried foul. His accompanying statement was a self-exculpatory whine of petulant nihilism. It was a “kangaroo court”; he was the victim of injustice and prejudice, a “Brexit revenge witch hunt” and (a nod here to his future caucus) ultimately a plot to reverse it. It was a Labor coup and remained underhanded. Any smears of his opponents within range were deployed.

It was Johnson at full Trump. Never mind that the committee investigating him – a committee made up of his peers – has a conservative majority; never mind that the evidence of his deception is clear and that there are apparently details of other lockdown breaches emerging. This is Trump’s playbook; recourse to the myth of betrayal. It is an appeal to his unconditional supporters among party members. He was deceived, not defeated. The will of the people is denied. He alone is their true consul.

And to back up that nonsense, an assault on his successor Rishi Sunak, with the message that only Johnson can be relied upon to reignite the flame of “properly conservative government” (true conservatism being all he needs). Shamelessly, he blames Sunak for the lack of a US trade deal he failed to secure and the cowardice on housing policy he has shown. The message is inescapable. Johnson is still planning a next act.

But beyond this positioning and this opportunism, is there a real strategy? It is clear that it will not fade away quietly. Even if he can’t get back to the top, he intends to be a nuisance, firing from outside parliament, grabbing the limelight and bolstering his fanciful claims to vindication. Some conservatives think that the impending sale of the Telegraph provides Johnson with other interesting opportunities for mischief.

Political nihilism and unrest can be seen in the wave of by-elections brought about by him and two of his most slavish allies, nigel adams and Nadine Dorries, who both brought forward their already announced departure from parliament to land Sunak with three uncomfortable contests, all of which could be lost.

This can be a short term pain for the long term gain of their release. It could also backfire if the Tories turn against them for an act of destructive disloyalty. But the hope, clearly, is to destabilize the prime minister with a series of defeats.

But whatever problems it might cause, there are only two paths back to the top and neither is easy. The very long plan is to build a new party around him amid general distaste for the existing ones. But the electoral system works against such plans. The most obvious path is for Johnson to take a step back before seeking another, safer Tory seat in the general election, vying to return as leader if the party loses.

The theory may be clear, but the reality is infinitely more complex. He has to secure this seat first. There are likely to be a number of constituencies that would take him, even if a truly ruthless Tory leader has the levers to prevent that, including suspending him from the party and from the list of candidates for infractions uncovered by the parliamentary inquiry. It will be interesting to see if Sunak is willing to be this overtly brutal. He should consider that his opponent would do it to him if the roles were reversed.

But even if Johnson were selected and elected, he would face a different landscape. His most fervent acolytes will have left Westminster; the shrewd tacticians he relied on may well have moved on to other camps. The ambitious members of the cabinet, the Bravermans, the Badenochs, etc., will not deviate from him. And conservatives will have to conclude that they risk going back with him instead of a fresher face. Much may depend on the magnitude of any defeat. But even if all the cards are in his favor, Johnson will have to face several years in the thankless task of opposition, a position that is not perfectly suited to his work ethic.

Above all that, there is a big difference. Once, Johnson was an unknown canvas onto which voters could project their own hopes. He was a cheeky maverick who conservatives found appealing, his personal failures deepening their sense that he would take on the establishment.

This time it is a known amount, tried, tested and found to be insufficient. Voters have experienced the dishonesty, amorality and, above all, the chaos of a post of Prime Minister Johnson. It should not be forgotten that his downfall was precipitated by polls showing a collapse in public support.

The Conservatives know he received a huge majority and squandered it. It is true that he suffered shocks that would have taxed any leader, but that is not what cost him his position. It was his character that brought him down, his laziness and his fundamental lack of seriousness. If this is the end of his high-flying career, his departure was suitably opportunistic, comedic, dirty and dishonest.

It’s a cliche of politics that you should never bet against Boris Johnson. This time it can finally be worth it.

robert.shrimsley@ft.com