Another Summer Surge? New COVID Variant and Rising Hospitalizations Raise Concerns
August 10, 2023 – After over three years in the COVID-19 era, most Americans have returned to their pre-pandemic lifestyles. However, a new dominant variant and an increase in hospitalizations may lead to another summer surge. Let’s take a closer look at the current situation and what experts are saying.
Emergence of a New Variant
A new variant of COVID, known as EG.5 or “Eris,” has emerged since April. This variant, from the Omicron family, now accounts for 17% of all cases in the US, up from 7.5% in the first week of July, according to recent data from the CDC.
The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota states that Eris is almost identical to its parent strain, XBB.1.9.2, but has an additional spike mutation. However, experts have not found any differences in disease severity or symptoms between Eris and previous strains.
Increase in Hospitalizations
Along with the rise in the prevalence of the EG.5 variant, hospitalization rates related to COVID have increased by 12.5% in the past week, the most significant increase since December. However, no connection has been established between the new variant and increased hospital admissions.
Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, believes that these are relatively minor mutations and there is no need to panic. He prefers to call it an “increase” in cases rather than a surge, as the numbers are still low compared to last year’s summer surge.
Dr. Bernard Camins, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital, agrees that there is no cause for alarm. He attributes the increase in cases to travel, socializing, and decreased mask use, but emphasizes that the level of immunity from vaccination and previous infections has limited the severity of cases.
The Official Numbers
The CDC no longer updates its COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review since May 2023. However, the agency continues to track COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and deaths in different ways. Key findings as of this week include:
- 9,056 new hospitalizations reported for the week ending July 29, 2023, which is relatively low compared to the same period last year.
- An increase in emergency room visits and positive tests across the United States.
- A low percentage (1%) of deaths related to COVID-19 compared to previous rates.
New COVID Vaccines and Recommendations
Experts predict lower hospitalization rates this winter as long as people make informed decisions and receive the new Omicron vaccine or a booster once it becomes available. Dr. Dean Winslow, a professor of medicine at Stanford University, recommends getting the Omicron booster when it becomes available.
Dr. Schaffner remains optimistic, stating that the currently available vaccines and those being developed for the fall will continue to prevent serious illness associated with the virus. However, the need for further vaccine recommendations will depend on ongoing studies.
Remaining Alert and Realistic
Cautious optimism and staying vigilant are advised at this time. While the increase in cases and hospitalizations is relatively small compared to previous scenarios, boosting anti-Omicron antibody levels with immunizations before the fall and winter is recommended.
In conclusion, the emergence of the EG.5 variant and the rise in hospitalizations warrant attention, but experts remain cautiously optimistic. It’s important to stay informed, make informed decisions about vaccines, and continue practicing preventive measures to keep ourselves and others safe.
Sources:
– Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC)
– Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota
– Dr. William Schaffner, Vanderbilt University
– Dr. Bernard Camins, Mount Sinai Hospital
– Dr. Dean Winslow, Stanford University
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August 10, 2023 – After more than 3 years into the COVID-19 era, most Americans have returned to their pre-pandemic lifestyle. But a new dominant variant and the increase in the number of hospitalizations may usher in another summer surge.
Since April, a new variant of COVID has emerged. According to recent data from the CDC dataEG.5, from the Omicron family, now accounts for 17% of all cases in the US, up from 7.5% in the first week of July.
TO summary of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota says that EG.5, nicknamed “Eris” by health trackers, is almost the same as its parent strain, XBB.1.9.2, but has a spike mutation additional.
Along with the news of the increasing prevalence of EG.5, related to COVID hospitalization rates have risen 12.5% in the past week, the most significant increase since December. Still, no connection has been established between the new variant and increased hospital admissions. And so far, experts haven’t found any difference in disease severity or symptoms between Eris and previous strains.
Matter of concern?
The COVID virus has a great tendency to mutate, says William Schaffner, MD, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
“Fortunately, these are relatively minor mutations.” Even so, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, remains highly contagious. “There is no doubt that it is spreading, but it is not more serious.”
So Schaffner doesn’t think it’s time to panic. He prefers to call it an “increase” in the cases rather than an “increase,” because an increase “sounds too big.”
While the numbers are still low compared to last year’s summer surge, experts are still urging people to keep abreast of changes in the virus. “I don’t think there’s any cause for alarm,” agreed Bernard Camins, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City.
So why the higher number of cases? “There has been an increase in COVID cases this summer, likely related to travel, socializing, and decreased mask use,” said Anne Liu, MD, an allergy, immunology, and infectious disease specialist at Stanford University. Even so, she said, “because of an existing level of immunity from vaccination and previous infections, it has been limited and the severity of cases has been less than in previous surges.”
What the official numbers say
The CDC no longer updates its COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review. They stopped in May 2023 when the federal public health emergency ended.
But the agency continues to track COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, emergency department visits and deaths in different ways. Key findings as of this week include 9,056 new hospitalizations reported for the week ending July 29, 2023. That’s relatively low, compared to July 30, 2022, when weekly numbers for new hospitalizations topped 44. 000.
“Last year, we saw a summer wave with cases peaking in mid-July. In that sense, our summer wave comes a bit later than last year,” said Pavitra Roychoudhury, PhD, assistant professor and researcher in the Division of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases at Washington University School of Medicine.
“It is not clear how high the peak will be during this current wave. SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, as well as the number of hospitalizations, are currently lower than this time last year.”
During part of the pandemic, the CDC recommended that people monitor COVID numbers in their own communities. But the agency’s local guidance on COVID is tied to hospital admission levels, which are currently low for more than 99% of the country, even if they are rising.
So while it’s good news that the number of hospitalizations is lower, it means the agency’s ability to identify local outbreaks or hotspots of SARS-CoV-2 is now more limited.
It’s not just an increase in hospitalizations across the country, as other indicators of COVID-19, including emergency room visits, positive tests, and sewage levels, are rising across the United States.
In terms of other metrics:
- On June 19, 0.47% of ER visits resulted in a positive COVID diagnosis. By August 4, that rate had more than doubled to 1.1%.
- On July 29, 8.9% of people who took a COVID test reported a positive result. The positivity rate has been on the rise since June 10, when 4.1% of tests came back positive. This figure only includes test results reported to the CDC. The results of the home tests remain largely unknown.
- The weekly percentage of deaths related to COVID-19 was 1% as of July 29. That’s low, compared to previous rates. For example, for the week ending July 30, 2022, it was 5.8%.
What about the new COVID vaccines?
As long as you continue to make informed decisions and get the new Omicron vaccine or a booster once it becomes available, experts predict lower hospitalization rates this winter.
“Everyone should get the Omicron booster when it becomes available,” recommended Dean Winslow, MD, professor of medicine at Stanford University in California.
In the meantime, “it is important to emphasize that COVID-19 will be with us for the foreseeable future,” he said. Since the symptoms associated with these newer Omicron subvariants are generally milder than with older variants, “if one has mild cold symptoms, it’s a good idea to get tested for COVID-19 and start treatment early if it’s a older person or has a high level”. risk of serious illness”.
Schaffner remains optimistic for now. “We anticipate that the vaccines that we currently have available, and certainly the vaccine that is being developed for this fall, will continue to prevent serious illness associated with this virus.”
Although it’s hard to predict an exact timeline, Schaffner said they could be available as late as September.
His predictions assume “that we don’t have a nasty new variant emerging somewhere in the world,” he said. “[If] As things continue to move as they have been, we anticipate that this vaccine…will be really effective and help keep us out of the hospital this winter, when we expect a further increase in COVID once again.”
When asked for his views on vaccine recommendations, Camins wasn’t so sure. “It’s too soon to say that”. Guidance on COVID vaccines will be based on the results of ongoing studies, he said. “However, it would be prudent for everyone to plan to get a flu shot in September.”
Stay alert and be realistic
Cautious optimism and a call to stay vigilant seem to be the consensus right now. While the numbers remain low so far and the increase in new cases and hospitalizations is relatively small, compared to previous scenarios, “it makes sense to boost our anti-Omicron antibody levels with immunizations before the fall and winter,” Liu said. .
“It is recommended that everyone, especially those who are at higher risk of hospitalization or death, be aware,” Camins said, “so that they can make their own decisions to participate in activities that may put them at risk of contracting COVID-19. .”
We have to remind ourselves that whether it’s for the flu, COVID, or even RSV, these respiratory virus vaccines work best to keep us out of the hospital. They are not as good at preventing milder infections.
Schaffner said, “So if we don’t expect perfection, we won’t be as disappointed.”
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