Bernie Collins, former Aston Martin strategist, analyzed the reasons behind the failure of the drivers who missed out on a podium finish at the Monaco Grand Prix. With six drivers vying for the final podium spot, Collins pointed out key mistakes that eliminated their chances. Firstly, drivers who started on the hard tire suffered due to an unnecessary loss of pit stop time because of the rain, and only George Russell managed to pull off a successful extended first stint. The decision to trust the radar was also difficult, and Russell was the only driver to do so, but his handling error at the end cost him and eliminated his podium chances. Leclerc, Sainz, and Gasly also failed to trust the radar and stop on the road during the rain, which would have placed them in third place. Finally, the decision to switch to intermediate or wet tires depended on driver feedback, lap times, radar, tire temperatures, and physical rain, and only four drivers managed to make the switch at the right time, leaving Russell to suffer a small mistake that cost him the final podium position.
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At least six drivers were vying for the final podium spot on offer at Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix. Former Aston Martin strategist Bernie Collins explains where the five who didn’t make it went wrong…
The Monaco Grand Prix is all about traffic. The teams’ job is to manage the pit stop windows and ensure the strategy is flexible enough to deal with a variety of traffic and Safety Car eventualities.
initial strategies
Nine drivers started on the hard tyre, which is higher than would be expected for a standard ‘track position’ race. So why did they do it?
Well, historically there are plenty of examples where a long first stint and an overcut (running longer and stopping later than your direct rivals to pass them) have worked in Monaco. But this time around, a tight midfield compared to previous years would have made it difficult to clear traffic quickly for all but the fastest cars.
READ MORE: Would Alonso have won in Monaco if he had made the right decision when it rained?
But the high graininess of the tires seen on Saturday would have promoted a first stint on hard tyres. Teams and drivers would be keen to avoid being pushed into an early pitstop if the softer tires don’t survive.
The race from the grid to Turn 1 in Monaco is the second shortest of the year, so the advantage the soft tire gives off the line is negligible. And perhaps most importantly, the risk of rain later in the race would have prompted the teams to run the longest possible first stint to give them maximum flexibility.
The fight for P3
With Max Versteppen and Fernando Alonso in their own race, there were six drivers in contention for the final podium: Esteban Ocon, Lewis Hamilton, George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz and Pierre Gasly.
There are some common mistakes across all (that we can see in hindsight) that eliminated everyone else’s podium chance and allowed Ocon to take the first top-three finish of the year for Alpine.
READ MORE: Ocon delighted ‘on a cloud’ as Alpine takes first podium finish since 2021 in Monaco
Firstly, for those who started on the hard tyre, regardless of individual reasons, the plan would have been a long first stint to clear traffic. All the cars that boxed before it rained suffered due to additional loss of pit stop time that turned out to be unnecessary.
The decision to delay a pit stop and trust the radar, while allowing other drivers to cut in (entering before their rivals in an effort to get ahead), is a difficult one. Only Russell managed to pull this off, but since he was at the back of the pack, he had nothing to lose by extending his first season. So mostly the decision fell on who was willing to trust the radar.
Throughout the morning the radar had shown a rain front advancing towards the runway. But the area around Monaco makes radar difficult to read, as the sea to the south often prevents rain from being visible on radar until it hits land.
As was the case on Sunday, the rain approaching from the north appears to diminish or disperse over the mountains, only to reappear directly over the circuit. The variety of information given to the drivers is a clear indication of the uncertainty between the teams.
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Sainz, who started on the hard tyres, was called to the pits a lap after Ocon, who had started with the medium ones, so he did not take advantage of the clear air he was in at the time.
Sainz’s frustration was clear on the radio when he came out behind Ocon on track and was told they had stopped to cover for Hamilton. “I don’t care about Hamilton, that was fucking weak,” he said.
10 laps that changed the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix
Similarly, Leclerc stopped to protect himself from Gasly and avoid backmarker traffic, and was then followed by Gasly three laps later. So only Russell (of this group) chose to stay on the road. If any of these drivers, Sainz, Leclerc or Gasly, had chosen to trust the radar and stay on the road, he would have been in third place when the rain fell.
With the order of Russell, Ocon, Leclerc, Hamilton, Sainz and Gasly on lap 51, the rain began to fall. Now teams and drivers had to choose the right lap to switch to intermediate tyres. In worsening conditions, from dry to wet, things tend to change quickly so the wrong lap can be extremely costly.
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Teams make the decision to switch to intermediate or wet tires based on some key data: driver feedback, lap times, radar, tire temperatures, and physical rain in pit lane or TV footage. We don’t have the team’s tire temperature information, so we don’t know what this showed.
We know that in the pit lane it was initially dry and therefore may have pushed the concept of a dry track, or at least being able to survive on dry tyres. Overall, driver feedback indicated that it was ready for intermissions. So the decision came down to whether the teams thought it would continue to rain or quickly improve.
The tire crossing chart above will be similar to those used by teams. Shows the fuel corrected lap times of all cars colored by the tire they have fitted.
The horizontal lines show that if the lap time drifts above the green line, the track is ready for intermediate tyres, or above the blue line, then wet tyres. The sudden drift of lap times towards and over the lines is clearly seen.
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Verstappen’s lap 54 stands out and at this point it’s clear the track is ready for intermediates.
To add to this, Leclerc is told that lap times above 1m 25s would indicate it was time to switch to intermediates. Leclerc’s laps 53 and 54 were slower than this, albeit in traffic.
So we know from the lap times and driver feedback that the track was now in intermediate conditions, but what did the radar show? At 16.12 local time, about 40 seconds before Alonso stopped for the media, the radar image is shown above.
You can see that the light blue shows the light rain at turns 4 through 9. However, just north of that, the yellow and orange cells, albeit with a hole in the middle, show heavier rain approaching the circuit.
READ MORE: Gasly ‘disappointed and confused’ after missing podium chance in Monaco
The second image (below) is 40 seconds after the first, when Alonso stops for the media. This shows that the yellow cells, heavier rain, have now reached Turns 5-8 and remain at a similar intensity behind for over 2.5km.
The hole in the radar, about 1km to the northeast, makes the overall picture not as clear as it could be and perhaps led the teams into thinking that the rain was survivable.
So lap 54 was the correct lap to switch to intermediate tyres, but only four of the contenders managed this: Ocon, Hamilton, Russell and Gasly. Leclerc and Sainz delayed the stop for another lap, possibly hoping that the open air while others stopped would improve the lap time.
Russell, still in third position, I made a mistake (running deep and off track) on the start lap on intermediate tires costing him 16 seconds, versus Hamilton on the same tyres. This mistake cost Russell the final podium position and dropped him to fifth.
So the three mistakes the teams and drivers made were:
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Stopping too soon due to hard starting tire
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Stopping too late for intermissions
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Russell’s driving mistake
Ocon, who started on the medium tire, also stopped early, but others who also stopped neutralized the loss. And Ocon himself made the intermission call and the team assured him that the rain was going to continue. Good communication allowed Ocon and the team to pick the right lap to switch to intermediates and secure the podium position.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.strategy-unpacked-the-3-key-mistakes-that-decided-the-six-way-fight-for.ZVQiVxfmYhintwYzYAi6d.html
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